000 AXNT20 KNHC 152334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure system is centered near 28N88W. An occluded front extends from the low over the NE Gulf to 26N84W, where ongoing strong to near gale force winds with gusts to gale force present north of 28N. Seas are 8 to 12 ft. A cold front extends southward from the 26N84W to the Yucatan Channel and to the Gulf of Honduras in the NW Caribbean. A stationary front extends SE from 26N84W to Key West, Florida. The low will continue to move ENE through the week, gradually dragging the fronts across the Gulf waters. Gusts to gale force and rough seas will continue through tonight across the northern semicircle of the low. Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system is expected to develop along a frontal boundary off the southeast coast of Florida Thu morning. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the NE and the broad area of low pressure will support strong to near-gale force winds N of 27N and E of 70W beginning Thu. Gale force ENE winds are expected in the northern semicircle of the low, offshore central Florida and north of the Bahamas Thu afternoon and Thu night, supporting seas of 12-16 ft. The gales are expected to lift north of the area along the front by Fri afternoon. Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the gales. Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week. Very heavy rainfall over these areas may lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Northerly swell event: Sea heights of 12 feet or higher will start tonight, from 29N northward between 50W and 60W. Seas will spread eastward and southward, reaching 26N between 35W and 55W by Friday morning. The peak seas from 15 feet to 16 feet, will occur between Thursday and Friday, from 30N northward. 12 ft seas will drift mainly north of the area and east of 40W by Saturday morning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 05N11W to 03N43W. No significant convection is associated with this feature at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds forecast that is related to the 1008 mb low pressure center. West of the cold front described in the Special Features section above, fresh to strong northerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail, mainly west of 87W. Winds and seas are beginning to diminish in the NW Gulf offshore Texas. Otherwise ahead of the low pressure system, moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are in the SE Gulf mainly near the entrance of the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the low pressure system will drift southward while weakening. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week, with high pressure building across the basin this upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is analyzed from NE Nicaragua to northern Yucatan Peninsula. Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture are helping to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western Caribbean, mainly W of 77W. Meanwhile, a dry airmass is suppressing deep convection in the remainder of the basin. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. These winds sustain seas of 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean. In the NW and extreme SW Caribbean, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through late Wed. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean in the next few days. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form toward the end of this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale-Force Wind Warning and a northerly swell event beginning this evening. A frontal boundary extends from 31N45W to the central Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail N of the front and east of 65W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the boundary to 40W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in the region of strong winds. West of 65W, Fresh to strong E winds prevail north of the front where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Winds may be gusting to near gale force between the Bahamas and SE Florida. A large area of moderate convection is noted over this region. Elsewhere, broad surface anticyclonic wind flow dominates the basin supporting fresh to moderate winds, and moderate seas. For the forecast, high pressure will build in the wake of the front N of the area. This will support an area of strong to near- gale winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W beginning tonight. A broad area of low pressure may develop over the waters W of 75W by the end of the week, with the strong to near- gale force winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and W of 70W toward the end of the week. $$ Mora