000 AXNT20 KNHC 121035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, the continues westward to near 06N28W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N28W to 07N56W. Scattered moderate to convection is from 03N to 11N between 26W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front remains over the Gulf waters and extends from northern Florida to the N-central Gulf near 27N90W to Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail in the western Gulf behind the front, with seas of 6 to 8 ft S of 23N. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere W of the front. Moderate to fresh E winds are in the Straits of Florida with seas of 3 to 5 ft. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing mainly gentle winds generally out of the NE to E and 2 to 4 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan peninsula. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will start to gradually move southward today. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail west of the front along the coast of Mexico through early this week. A strengthening ridge over the SE United States may support fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf Mon-Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the eastern Caribbean and extends along 62W with scattered showers. Latest ASCAT pass and nearby surface observations indicate the wind shift associated with the trough, with fresh to strong E to SE winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N between 76W and 81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over the north-central Caribbean affecting parts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A diffluent pattern aloft on the W side of an upper-level trough, that extends from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean, supports this convective activity. Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean as a result of the pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Trades are fresh in the remainder of the eastern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh in the western Caribbean. Seas are generally 6 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft in NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage through today. The area of high pressure will gradually shift eastward beginning tonight, bringing a slight decrease in areal coverage of the strong winds through the week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week as the system drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic forecast region. A stationary front is just off NE Florida. Light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis N of 25N while mainly moderate to fresh trades are noted to the S. Some fresh winds are noted in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles, including also the Windward Passage and offshore Hispaniola. Fresh NE winds are also present in the far NE Atlantic, between the Canary Islands, and near the coast of Western Sahara. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in N swell are north of 30N between 30W and 40W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft just E of the Lesser Antilles. Seas in the 5 to 7 ft range are noted across much of the waters E of 30W, with the highest seas associated with the strongest winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge of high pressure along 29N will shift eastward through today. This will enable a cold front to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda early this week. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail N of 27N and W of 70W through Tue. Fresh to strong E winds will prevail over the waters N of Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage through this morning. $$ ERA