000 AXNT20 KNHC 111707 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W then continues westward to 06N27W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N27W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 25W and 31W and from 05N to 10N east of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to 28N92W to 1017 mb low pressure near 25N95W to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail in the western Gulf behind the front. 4-6 ft seas are within 120 nm of the coast of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate E winds are in the Straits of Florida with seas of 2-4 ft. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing light to gentle winds generally out of the east and 2-4 ft seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the front will start to gradually move southward this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail west of the front along the coast of Mexico through early next week. A strengthening ridge over the SE United States may support fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean as a result of the pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in the SW Caribbean. The latest satellite scatterometer data indicated wind speeds may be locally near-gale force within 60 nm of the coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Caribbean. Trades are fresh in the eastern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh in the western Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft in these sections of the basin. 1006 mb low pressure is analyzed near 10N77W in the SW Caribbean along the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from the coast of Panama north to 13N between 77W and 82W. A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean with axis along 87W and S of 21N, generating scattered showers and thunderstorms W of 85W. Scattered showers are noted south of Hispaniola and over the Windward Islands. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage through the weekend. The area of high pressure will gradually shift eastward this weekend, bringing a slight decrease in areal coverage of the strong winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N53W and 1027 mb high pressure centered near Madeira dominate the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Light to gentle trades are north of 20N, and gentle to moderate trades are south of 20N. Areas of fresh winds are between the Bahamas and eastern Cuba, including approaches to the Windward Passage, east of the Lesser Antilles from 10N to 18N between 53W and 60W, and south of the Canary Islands along the coast of Africa. A surface trough is analyzed along 55W from 07N to 12N. Strong trades are near the trough axis, with seas to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough from 08N to 13N between 54W and 62W. Seas of 8-9 ft are north of 25N between 37W and 45W. Seas are 4-7 ft across remaining waters, except north of 26N and west of 63W, where seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge of high pressure along 28N will shift eastward through the weekend. This will enable a cold front to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail N of 27N and W of 70W Sun through Tue. Fresh to strong E winds will prevail over the waters N of Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage, through early Sun. $$ Mahoney