000 AXNT20 KNHC 100453 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W to 08N26W. The ITCZ continues from 08N26W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 14W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high over northern Florida continues to dominate the Gulf, providing moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight seas. A weak surface trough is in the central Gulf lacking convection. For the forecast, the weak surface trough in the central Gulf will shift east ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf late tonight and early Fri morning. The front will reach from the Sabine Pass to near Tampico, Mexico by late Sat, then stall from near Panama City, Florida to about 90 nm off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then southward to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front over the western Gulf along the coast of Mexico through early next week. Looking ahead, a strengthening ridge over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A persistent surface trough extends across the western Caribbean along 82W and S of 17N enhancing convection W of 78W. Moderate trade winds are in the vicinity of the trough, the NW Caribbean and the far E basin E of 64W where seas to 6 ft are ongoing. The Bermuda High north of the area is supporting fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean between 65W and 79W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this region of strongest winds. Otherwise, aided by divergent flow aloft, convergent trades are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the E Caribbean, mainly E of 68W. For the forecast, the ridge of high pressure north of the region will gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will support NE to E winds up to fresh or strong speeds along with building seas in the Windward Passage and across the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda high continues to dominate the W Atlantic subtropical waters with no significant convection. E moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N and W of 55W, except for fresh to strong in the approaches of the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft in this region. To the E, the tail end of a frontal boundary enters our waters as a stationary front from 31N44W to 21N59W. Scattered showers are noted ahead of the front mainly N of 23N. Over the far E subtropical Atlantic, a 1028 mb high is centered near 33N23W. A tight pressure gradient supports NE fresh to strong winds N of 18N E of 30W. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range over that area, including the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge along 30N will shift eastward through the weekend, ahead of a cold front expected to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda early in the week. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds over the waters south of 23N through the weekend, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, strong winds and building seas will follow the cold front over the waters west of 70W Sun night through Tue night. $$ ERA