000 AXNT20 KNHC 092340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Guinea Bissau border, then curves westward to near 07N26W. The ITCZ continues from 07N26W across 10N35W to 10N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 08W and 31W, and from 08N to 11N between 32W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high over northern Florida continues to dominate the Gulf, providing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. A small area of locally fresh NE to E winds is along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a surface trough inland. Otherwise, a weak surface trough is in the central Gulf lacking convection. For the forecast, the surface trough in the central Gulf will linger through the end of the week. A cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf late tonight and early Fri morning. The front will reach from the Sabine Pass to near Tampico, Mexico by late Sat, then stall from near Panama City, Florida to about 90 nm off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then southward to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front over the western Gulf along the coast of Mexico through early next week. Looking ahead, a strengthening ridge over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough continue to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean W of 77W. Moderate trade winds are in the vicinity of the trough, the NW Caribbean and the far E basin E of 64W where seas to 5 ft are ongoing. The Bermuda High north of the area, is supporting fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean between 65W and 79W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this region of strongest winds. Otheriwse, aided by divergent flow aloft, convergent trades are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NE Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will build through Fri then gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will allow increasing NE to E winds up to fresh or strong speeds along with building seas in the Windward Passage and across the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda and Azores Highs continue to dominate the SW N Atlantic and E Atlantic subtropical waters. In the SW N Atlantic, the winds are moderate to fresh and from the E to the S of 27N, except for fresh to strong in the approaches of the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft in this region. Over the far E subtropical Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient support NE fresh to strong winds N of 18N E of 24W as captured by a recent scatterometer pass. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range over that area, including the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will be building along 30N through Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds over the waters south of 23N through the weekend, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, strong winds and building seas will follow a cold front expected to move over the waters between NE Florida and Bermuda Sun through early next week. $$ Ramos