000 AXNT20 KNHC 082345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast the coast of Liberia near 10N14W then curves southwestward to near 07N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 07N21W across 07N35W to 07N48W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02N to 10N between the coast of Liberia and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure centered over northern Florida continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds basin-wide, except for locally fresh winds across the Florida Straits. Fair weather and slight seas remain across the gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over NE Gulf will shift east of the area tonight. A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf Fri morning. The front is then expected to stall from the Florida panhandle to just offshore of S Texas and extend southward to near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the front, especially over the SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico from Fri night through Mon night. Looking ahead, a strengthening ridge over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE winds over the E Gulf on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers over the NE Caribbean while a surface trough moving over the central basin is generating scattered showers over the offshore waters between Haiti and Jamaica. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are ongoing basin-wide, except for strong NE winds in the Windward Passage. Seas are slight, except moderate in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will be building tomorrow and Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will allow increasing NE to E winds up to fresh or strong speeds in the Windward Passage and across the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia tonight through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the METEO-FRANCE marine zones, Agadir and Tarfaya. A cold front reaches southwestward from a 999 mb low at the north-central Atlantic across 31N52W to near 22N58W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near and up to 280 nm east of this feature. At the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough is causing widely scattered moderate convection from 20N to 26N between 30W and 35W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong W to S winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present near the cold front, north of 26N between 40W and 54W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are evident north of 10N between 40W and the Florida/Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft dominate north of 08N between the Africa coast and 40W. Light to gentle with locally moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift east of the area today. The Bermuda High will be building along 30N on Thu and Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds over the waters south of 23N, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun. Looking ahead, strong winds and building seas should follow a cold front expected to move over the waters between NE Florida and Bermuda on Sun. $$ Ramos