545 AXNT20 KNHC 081806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-Force Wind Warning off Morocco: NE gale-force winds off the Morocco coast near Agadir are expected to decrease to between strong and near-gale near noon today. Combined seas of 10 to 13 ft in this area should gradually drop to between 7 and 10 ft by Thursday morning. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic extends along the Africa coast just south of the Guinea-Bissau-Guinea border, then curves southeastward to near 07N18W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N18W across 07N30W to 07N48W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near these features from 03N to 09N between Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 48W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1020 mb high pressure over the northeastern Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Convergent southeasterly winds are triggering widely scattered showers at the west-central and south-central Gulf north of the Yucatan Channel. Gentle E to SE winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are present at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high over the northeastern Gulf will shift east of the area today. A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwestern Gulf Fri morning, then stall from the Florida Panhandle to a weak low near southern Texas with a cold front extending from this low southward to near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front, especially over the western and southwestern Gulf along the coast of Mexico from Fri night through Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the north-central and northeastern basin, including waters near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Otherwise, a trade-wind pattern dominates the region. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the entire basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will be building on Thu and Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will allow increasing fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of Colombia beginning Wed night through the next few days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the METEO-FRANCE marine zones, Agadir and Tarfaya. A cold front reaches southwestward from a 999 mb low at the north-central Atlantic across 31N52W to near 22N58W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near and up to 280 nm east of this feature. At the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough is causing widely scattered moderate convection from 20N to 26N between 30W and 35W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong W to S winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present near the cold front, north of 26N between 40W and 54W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are evident north of 10N between 40W and the Florida/Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft dominate north of 08N between the Africa coast and 40W. Light to gentle with locally moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift east of the area today. The Bermuda High will be building along 30N on Thu and Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds over the waters south of 23N, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun. Looking ahead, strong winds and building seas should follow a cold front expected to move over the waters between NE Florida and Bermuda on Sun. $$ Chan