000 AXNT20 KNHC 080945 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-Force Wind Warning off Morocco: Gale force NE winds persist off Morocco, between 1027 mb high pressure centered between Madeira and the Azores, and broad troughing over northwest Africa. Combined seas are 10 to 16 ft in the area of gale force winds. The gale-force winds are expected to continue through at least 08/1500 UTC. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N20W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 09N between 25W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico near 29N85W. This pattern is supporting calm to light breezes over the northeast Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure centered over northeast Gulf will shift east of the area today. A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri, then stall from north- central Florida to weak low pressure near south Texas, with a cold front extending the low pressure southward to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front, especially over the far west- central and southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico from Fri night to Sat night, and over most of the western Gulf Sun and Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A scatterometer satellite pass confirmed moderate to fresh NE winds across the northwest Caribbean south of 18N, between high pressure north of the area and a trough along the coast of Honduras. Concurrent altimeter and buoy data indicated seas of 3 to 5 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh NE winds may be ongoing across the Windward Passage as well, and south of Cabo Beata on the south coast of Hispaniola, with 3 to 5 ft seas in these areas. Moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers are active across the northeast Caribbean, associated with a weak frontal trough in the area. For the forecast, the relatively weak high pressure north of the area will be replaced by stronger high pressure on Thu before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will allow for northeast winds to increase to mostly fresh speeds in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola by late Wed. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the central Caribbean and over the western part of the eastern Caribbean Fri through Sun as a result from a tightening gradient between the high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure over the southwestern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the METEO-FRANCE marine zones, Agadir and Tarfaya. A weak cold front reaches from 31N50W to the Virgin Islands. Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted within 300 nm east of the front, north of 27N. Broad ridging is supporting moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, in addition the gale force winds off Morocco, fresh to strong NE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are noted east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front extending from 25N55W to the Virgin Islands will shift east 55W today ahead of relatively weak high pressure building eastward along 30N through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong east winds over the waters south of 24N, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun. Looking ahead, strong winds and building seas will follow a cold front expected to move over the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat and stall through Sun night. $$ Christensen