000 AXNT20 KNHC 072322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1029 mb located SE of the Azores Islands and lower pressures in NW Africa is resulting in strong to gale-force N to NE winds in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. A scatterometer pass captured the presence of these winds. Seas are currently peaking near 17 ft off Morocco. Gale-force winds are expected to continue through at least 08/0900 UTC with gusts in Agadir, diminishing in Tarfaya soon. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and continues westward to 07N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N23W to 06N40W to 07N58W. Convection is limited. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1019 mb located off the western Florida Panhandle near 29N87W is maintaining a light to gentle anticyclonic flow and slight seas across the Gulf region, with the exception of moderate southerly winds over the western Gulf, mainly N of 22N and W of 95W. patches of low level clouds persist along most of the Mexican coast. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift east of the area by late Wed. Meanwhile, a weak trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move across the southwest Gulf overnight. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri, preceded by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. By early Sat, the front may stall from north-central Florida to weak low pressure near south Texas, with a cold front extending from the low pressure southward to near Veracruz, Mexico. Little change to this pattern is expected Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front, especially over the far west-central and southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico from Fri night to Sat night and over most of the western Gulf Sun and Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection has diminished over the Gulf of Honduras compared with the previous days. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms are still noted over the Gulf of Honduras and parts of Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua. Similar convective activity is also seen over the eastern Caribbean, more concentrated over the Windward Islands and regional waters. A surface trough is analyzed across the area, and extends from the Mona Passage to the Gulf of Venezuela. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Mona Passage and parts of Puerto Rico and coastal waters. Moderate to locally fresh trades are evident across the basin with seas generally of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure north of the area will be replaced by stronger high pressure on Thu before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will allow for northeast winds to increase to mostly fresh speeds in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola by late Wed. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the central Caribbean and over the western part of the eastern Caribbean Fri through Sun as a result from a tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure over the southwestern Caribbean. These conditions will begin to improve late on Sun, with the exception that the fresh northeast winds in the lee of Cuba will increase to fresh to strong speeds while expanding westward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A broad upper-level trough over the western Atlantic supports a cold front that extends from a 1008 mb low pressure situated near 32N56W southwestward to just northeast of the British Virgin Islands. A wide band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds are also ahead of the front, mainly N of 24N while gentle to moderate W to NW winds follow the front. A surface trough is analyzed W of the front and stretches from the same low pressure to near the SE Bahamas where some low level clouds are noted on satellite imagery. A ridge dominates the western Atlantic W of 70W. This is providing light to gentle NE winds and slight seas. Farther east, high pressure of 1029 mb located SE of the Azores near 35N19W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between this feature and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in fresh to strong NE winds N of 15N and E of 30W with strong to gale force winds near the coast of Morocco. NE swell from these winds is supporting seas in excess of 8 ft, reaching as far west as 35W. A pair of altimeter passes between the W coast of Africa and 30W indicate seas of 8 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic with seas of 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will move east of the forecast waters Wed morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are along and ahead of the front north of 20N. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure over the western part of the area will be replaced by stronger high pressure on Thu. The high pressure will gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will allow for fresh to strong east winds to develop over the waters south of 24N, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun. These conditions will begin to improve late on Sun. A cold front is expected to move over the waters off northeast Florida on Sat and stall through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northeast winds will follow in behind the front along with seas building to 8 or 9 ft in northeast swell. $$ GR