000 AXNT20 KNHC 070541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale-Force Wind Warning E of 35W... The METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of gale-force winds, for the marine zones AGADIR and TARFAYA, until 08/0000 UTC. The surface pressure gradient, that is between strong high pressure of 1032 mb that is just to the southeast of the Azores and comparatively lower pressures that are in NW Africa, is resulting in the gale-force N to NE winds. Fresh to strong NE winds in general are from 22N northward from 30W eastward. A shear line is along 22N16W 24N32W. Rough seas are from 14N northward from 50W. The comparatively highest seas are from 20N northward from 30W eastward. Please, read the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast, that is on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N15W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, to 05N30W and 06N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 12N from 53W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward between 53W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 29N89W, just to the east of SE Louisiana. High level clouds are from 25N northward, moving toward the east. Fresh NE winds are within 60 nm to 75 nm of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula between 88W and 92W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the area. Slight seas cover the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure centered over north-central Gulf will shift east of the area by late Wed. Meanwhile a weak trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move across the southwest Gulf overnight. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri. By early Sat, the front may stall from Apalachicola, Florida to weak low pressure off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then southward to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front, especially over the far west- central and southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico from Fri night to Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 12N81W to the east of Nicaragua, to eastern Honduras, toward the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, beyond the Panama/Costa Rica border, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 18N between 75W and 93W. A comparatively more north-to-south oriented surface trough extends from the NW part of the Dominican Republic to the coast of Venezuela along 70W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower NE winds are in the central one-third of the area, and in the SW corner. An exception is for fresh NE winds from 19N northward between SE Cuba and 80W. Moderate seas are from 20N northward from 80W westward. Slight seas span the rest of the area. The 24-hour rainfall totals, for the period that ended at 07/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, are: 0.26 in Bermuda, and 0.05 in Curacao. Moderate to fresh NE winds, 5 to 7 ft seas and scattered showers persist across the northwest Caribbean this evening along a trough extending across Belize and Honduras. Conditions will improve early Tue as the trough weakens. High pressure north of the area will build and shift eastward through mid week, allowing NE winds to increase in the lee of Cuba, over the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola by late Wed. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the central Caribbean Fri and Sat between the high pressure over the Atlantic, and lower pressure over the southwest Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about the METEO-FRANCE forecast for gale-force winds in the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the area that is between 60W and the SE U.S.A. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is most of the area that is from 63W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N northward between 46W and 76W. A diffluent upper level wind pattern is to the east of the upper level trough. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N to 24N between 24W and 45W. Expect enhanced clouds and possible rainshowers in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface ridge is along 23N53W 30N44W, to the 1032 mb high pressure center that is to the southeast of the Azores. Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the area. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 60W eastward. Moderate N to NE winds are from 70W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area. A trough extending from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas will dissipate Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the northern portion of another trough extending from 31N57W to near the Anegada Passage. This trough and associated weather will shift east of the area by Wed night, ahead of high pressure moving eastward along 30N from the northern Gulf to between northeast Florida and Bermuda through mid week, and to the northeast of region later in the week. Looking ahead, this pattern will support fresh to strong E winds mainly south of 22N to include the approaches to the Windward Passage Thu through Sat. $$ mt/ec