000 AXNT20 KNHC 062318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1033 mb located over the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa is resulting in strong to gale-force N to NE winds in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. Seas are currently peaking near 15 ft off Morocco, and forecast to peak near 17 ft on Tue. Gale-force winds are expected to continue through at least 08/0000 UTC with severe gusts. Winds and seas will diminish late this week. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues westward to 07N24W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N24W to 07N40W and to 11N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10.5N between 24W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf region with a 1020 mb high pressure located over SE Louisiana. Under the influence of this system, light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Seas are 3 to 5 ft within these winds, except 5 to 7 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted elsewhere. Thick low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico where light rain has been reported. For the forecast, high pressure centered over north-central Gulf will shift east of the area by late Wed. Generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and slight seas will be over the Gulf through early Fri. Northeast to east winds over the far southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida will begin to freshen late on Tue. These winds will expand westward late on Sat. A cold front is expected to reach the Texas coast early on Fri, move into the NW Gulf offshore waters Fri afternoon, reach from northern Florida panhandle to the north central Gulf and to near Tampico, Mexico early on Sat and from west central Florida to the central Gulf, where it may become stationary to low pressure just offshore northeast Mexico by late Sun. A cold front may extend from the low south-southeastward to the central Bay of Campeche at that time. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected north of the stationary front, and fresh to strong northwest winds are expected behind the cold front, with seas becoming rough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras and plenty of tropical moisture supports numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms off the coasts of Honduras and Belize. Farther south, the east Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean through near the Costa Rica/W Panama border and continues eastward to northern Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen on satellite imagery over parts of Costa Rica and Panama. Similar convective activity is near the Windward Islands. An upper-level trough is helping to induce this convective activity. The ridge over the Gulf of Mexico reaches the NW Caribbean and western Cuba while the Atlantic ridge extends into the NE Caribbean. In the middle, a weak pressure gradient prevails over the remainder of the basin supporting gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Over the Nw Caribbean moderate to fresh NE winds are observed per satellite derived wind data. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Honduras associated with a broad trough over the region will persist through at least late Tue. High pressure building north of the area will support fresh trade winds across the northwest Caribbean into Tue, and fresh trade winds in the Windward Passage starting Wed and in the eastern Caribbean starting Thu. Trade winds are expected to increase to strong speeds over the central Caribbean on Sat, and are likely to change little through late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A trough extends from a low pressure of 1011 mb located near 29N71W southwestward to the NW Bahamas. Another trough extends from the same low to the southeastern Bahamas. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms covers the waters N of 27N between 60W and 67W. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are associated with this convective activity based on scatterometer data. A diffluent pattern aloft, ahead of an upper- level trough sustains this active weather. High pressure is building over the NW part of the area in the wake of the troughs. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are occurring behind the westernmost surface trough, along with seas of 4-7 ft. The Atlantic ridge extends into the western Atlantic and the NE Caribbean. This pattern supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas. The central and eastern Atlantic are dominated by a strong high pressure system over the Azores. In the northeast Atlantic, a shear line is analyzed roughly along 25N, between 15W and 35W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are present north of the shear line, including the water passages of the Canary Islands. Rough seas are present north of the shear line. Satellite-derived wind data also depict fresh to locally strong NE winds from 15N to 23N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Across the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker trade winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure will slide eastward and strengthen through Fri resulting in increasing trade winds to the south of 24N and east of the Bahamas, including approaches to Windward Passage, through Fri night. A cold front is expected to move across the northern and central waters from Sat through Sun night, followed by mostly fresh northeast to east winds. $$ GR