000 AXNT20 KNHC 060536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N29W. The ITCZ extends from 07N29W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery from 05N to 13N between 17W and 29W, and from 05N to 10N between 35W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 29N93W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft over most of the Gulf. Fresh N winds are noted per scatterometer data in the Yucatan Channel with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient persists across the SE half of the basin and will support moderate to fresh NE winds S of 25N through Mon morning before diminishing. Relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected through Thu as high pressure settles across the NE Gulf and dominates the region. Looking ahead, the next front is expected to enter the NW Gulf midday Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers and thunderstorms continue to flare-up over the NW Caribbean, mainly S of 18N and W of 82W, including the Gulf of Honduras. This convective activity is also impacting portions of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, northern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. A few showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the Windward Islands. This activity is near the southern end of an upper-level trough that crosses the Windward Islands into NE Venezuela. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over Panama and Costa Rica, and parts of northern Central America. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are funneling across the Yucatan Channel into the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. An area of moderate to fresh E winds is south of Jamaica. Moderate or weaker easterly winds prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. Seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. For the forecast, the large area of showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Honduras associated with a broad trough over the region will persist through Mon. Fresh northeast winds and rough seas associated with a tight pressure gradient across the northwestern Caribbean will gradually weaken through Mon afternoon. Easterly trade winds will return to the basin on Tue and become fresh to locally strong across central portions Thu through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N72W to 27N72W, then a trough is analyzed from 27N72W to 25N73W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these features. A surface trough stretches from 23N56W to the northern Leeward Islands. This is the reflection of an upper-level trough located E of the Leeward Islands. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted SE of the trough axis. A stationary front crosses the Canary Islands and continues westward to 27N33W to 31N43W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 12 to 16 ft in northerly swell are in the wake on the front mainly E of 22W. Fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail elsewhere N of 19N and E of 51W. High pressure of 1032 mb located W of the Azores dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. In the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades are observed per satellite derived wind data. seas are 4 to 7 ft within these winds. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell prevail behind the front tonight across the offshore waters of Florida, where seas are interacting with the Gulfstream. Expect winds and seas to diminish on Mon. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region from the NW early Wed through Thu and act to freshen trade winds to the S of 24N Thu through Fri. $$ ERA