862 AXNT20 KNHC 051018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall over Central America and W Caribbean: A low pressure system that moved into northern Central America has weakened over the past several hours. However, clusters of showers and thunderstorms persist over much of Nicaragua and the western Caribbean waters W of 82W, and may increase over Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador later today. This rainfall could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in higher terrain areas. Refer to the local weather services for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... An ITCZ extends westward from west of Sierra Leone near 08N15W to 08N46W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of the boundary. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extending southward from a 1022 mb high over Mississippi is dominating much of the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are present at the south- central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are found across the eastern, central and north-central Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient across the southern half of the basin will support moderate to fresh winds S of 25N through tonight. Seas to 9 ft across the Yucatan Channel will gradually subside today. Relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected from Mon on as high pressure remains over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about heavy rains impacting the western Caribbean and central America. An upper-level trough extends northeastward from near the ABC Islands to beyond the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near the ABC Islands and Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft exist across the northwestern, west-central and north- central basin. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate NE swell are evident at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the active weather is expected to persist across the western Caribbean through today. Fresh northeast winds and rough seas associated with a tight pressure gradient across the western Caribbean will weaken tonight. Easterly trade winds will return to the basin by midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N75W to 27N80W. A 1013 mb low is analyzed near 30N73W, with trough extending from the low to 23N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near these features north of 25N west of 63W. A couple of surface troughs are aided by divergent upper- level winds to generate scattered moderate convection from 10N to 26N between 47W and 60W. An upper-level low near 23N29W is triggering scattered showers from 17N to 24N between 25W and 31W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted north of 27N and W of 77W. Moderate to fresh NNE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in large mixed swells are evident north of 26N between the Africa coast and 54W. An area of fresh NE winds and seas to 10 ft is noted from 10N to 25N and E of 31W. Light to gentle SE and monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh northeast winds and large NE swell prevail today behind the front across the offshore waters of NE Florida and Georgia where seas are interacting with the Gulfstream. Expect winds and seas to diminish this evening. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region Tue through Thu and freshen trade winds to the S of 24N. $$ ERA