000 AXNT20 KNHC 040553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Significant Swell: A persistent stationary front extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N61W to beyond the northwest Bahamas. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted up to 100 nm along either side of this boundary. Latest satellite scatterometer data suggest moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to ENE winds behind the front. Recent satellite altimeter data along with model guidance reveal 10 to 13 ft seas in large NE swell, north of 29N between 62W and 70W. Seas range from 7 to 10 ft elsewhere behind the front, including waters near the northwest Bahamas and east of Florida. Both winds and seas will subside further Sat and Sat evening. Please read the latest High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details about this warning. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: Invest AL97 is located near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, just south of the Nicaragua-Honduras border with a central pressure of 1005 mb. This broad disturbance is interacting with a monsoon trough from the Eastern Pacific to generate heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms across the west-central Caribbean Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and coastal areas near the Nicaragua- Honduras border. This disturbance will gradually move westward inland across Nicaragua and Honduras through early next week. Expect heavy rain and strong thunderstorms to spread northwestward into nearby Guatemala and Belize this weekend, and possible southward across Costa Rica and Panama early next week. This will increase the potential for flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of hilly terrain. Further development of this system appears unlikely as it is already moving over land. Please refer to the local weather services for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near Dakar, then reaches westward to southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 14N21W. Farther south, an ITCZ stretches from 05N20W to 05N35W, then turns northwestward to 12N49W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ. There is no significant convection near the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front remains across the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel with widely scattered showers evident up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. A broad surface trough is producing similar conditions over the central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high over the Carolinas and lower pressures associated with the stationary front is sustaining fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft across the eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present for the central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, winds and seas across the eastern and central Gulf will diminish Sat as the high slides eastward and weakens through early next week. Relatively quite marine conditions are expected from Sun well into next week as relatively weak high pressure remains over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about potential heavy rainfall across Central America related to Invest AL97. Aside from Invest AL97, an upper-level trough extends northeastward from an upper low near the ABC Islands to beyond the northern Leeward Islands. Divergent winds near and south of these features are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the south-central and southeastern basin, including the Windward Islands and Atlantic waters just to the east. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft exist across much of the basin, except the southwestern portion which gentle to moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the stationary front just north of the Cuba and near the Yucatan Channel will weaken through early Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas associated with AL97 and the front will prevail in the northwestern basin through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north-central and portions of the SW Caribbean will continue to affect these areas through Sat morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for significant swell and rough seas in the Western Atlantic. Other than the stationary front mentioned in the Special Features section, an elongated upper-level low near 22N55W is causing widely scattered moderate convection from 20N to 28N between 40W and 60W. Combining with a broad surface trough to the southeast, scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N to 20N between 43W and 54W. North of 26N between 30W and the stationary front/central and southeast Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell exist. Farther south from 10N to 26N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate E swell dominate between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft in large northerly swell are noted north of 12N between the Africa coast and 30W/35W. Light to gentle southeasterly and monsoonal westerly winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will drift back to the northwest as a warm front tonight, then weaken to a trough Sat over the northwest Bahamas offshore waters through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front will diminish Sat. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region well into next week. $$ Chan