000 AXNT20 KNHC 031052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Nov 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: a pronounced stationary front extends from 31N62W to 24N80W. Expect strong to gale-force easterly winds and rough seas of 12 to 14 ft up to 150 nm behind the front behind 73W and 85W, including the northwest Bahamas and Florida Straits through this morning. Afterward, both winds and seas will gradually diminish through Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details about this warning. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A disturbance (Invest 97L) is located in the west-central Caribbean near 14N80W with a central pressure of 1007 mb. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms prevail from 12N to 19N west of 77W, including the Gulf of Honduras. This low is gradually moving westward toward Central America. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur before it moves inland over Central America Friday night or Saturday. Plenty of tropical moisture and an unstable atmosphere is forecast to produce heavy rains over portions of central America from Belize and Guatemala southward to Panama through early next week. This rainfall is likely to result in flash flooding and possible landslides. Please refer to the local weather services for more information. This system has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W to 06N16W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 06N16W to 01N34W, then resumes W of a surface trough near 09N40W to 12N50W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front curves southwestward from the central Bahamas across the Florida Straits to near the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are occurring along and up to 150 nm north of the front. A surface ridge extends northeastward from a 1022 mb high near Veracruz, Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are found at the southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas exist across the central and northeastern Gulf, and the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, strong high pressure continue to build over the area in the wake of a frontal boundary currently SE of the area. The associated tight gradient between the front and strong high pressure continue to support strong to near gale force NE winds and rough seas in the Florida Straits and portions of the SE gulf. These winds are forecast to diminish today. Fresh northerly winds in the Bay of Campeche and seas to 9 ft will diminish today. Conditions further improve Sun into early next week as high pressure settles over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the potential heavy rainfall for Central America related to Invest AL97. A broad surface trough curves northeastward from the aforementioned Invest AL97 to beyond eastern Cuba. An upper- level low near 15N64W is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the eastern and south-central basin. Fresh to strong NNE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the northwestern basin. Fresh with locally strong E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the west-central and north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft dominate the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, Invest AL97 is expected to bring heavy rains over portions of Jamaica through tonight and across Central America through early next week. The stationary front will remain stationary while it gradually weakens through tonight. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the front and its remnants will prevail in the NW Caribbean through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north-central and portions of the SW Caribbean associated with AL97 will continue to affect these regions through Sat morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A pronounced stationary front extends from east of Bermuda across 31N62W and the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and up to 160 nm northwest of the front. A surface trough curves southwestward from 25N70W across the southeast Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the central Bahamas. A 1017 mb low is analyzed near 27N57W with no significant convection. An upper- level low near 23N51W is producing scattered showers from 20N to 26N between 50W and 55W. Another surface trough extends from 22N44W to 19N44W with scattered moderate convection along the northern half of the area. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident behind the stationary front north of 27N between 65W and Florida/Georgia coast. East of the front, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist north of 24N west of 39W. To the south, moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted from 10N to 24N between 38W and the Lesser Antilles. For the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft dominate north of 08N between the Africa coast and 38W, including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Light to gentle with locally moderate SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the stationary front extends from 31N62W to 24N80W. The front will start to weaken while lifting to the NW today before dissipating Sat. The remnant trough is forecast to be over the northern Bahamas offshore waters through the weekend. Ongoing gale force NE winds and rough seas behind the front, and across the central Bahamas offshore waters and the southern Florida seaboard will continue through early this morning. $$ ERA