000 AXNT20 KNHC 022321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Gale Wind Warning: a strong cold front extends from 31N61W to 26N72W with a stationary front extending from that point to the coast of Belize near 28N88W. Expect strong to gale- force winds and rough seas behind the front from 23N northward between 70W and 84W. Gusts to gale- force are forecast from 75W westward. Seas are up to 14 ft north fo the Bahamas and across the Straits of Florida. Gales will come to an end by Fri morning with the strong winds diminishing by Sat. Seas will subside by Sat. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about these warnings. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A disturbance (Invest 97L) is located in the central Caribbean Sea near 14.5N79W with a central pressure of 1007 mb. This low is moving westward toward Central America. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur before it moves inland over Central America Friday night or Saturday. Plenty of tropical moisture and an unstable atmosphere is forecast to produce heavy rains over portions of Jamaica through tonight and over western Central America from Friday through the weekend. This rainfall is likely to result in flash flooding and possible landslides. Please refer to the local weather services for more information. This system has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06.5N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N16W to 02N31W to 03N44W. No significant convection is noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES for information on the Gale Warning in the Straits of Florida. High pressure ridge prevails across the basin. Gale-force winds continue across the Straits of Florida with strong to near gale- force winds noted in the SE Gulf. Seas in this area range 8 to 13 ft, with the highest seas south of the Florida Keys. Strong winds are also noted near Veracruz, Mexico with seas 8 to 10 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh W to NW winds are noted across the eastern and southern Gulf. Light to gentle winds are occurring in the NW Gulf. Seas range 4 to 7 ft across the rest of the Gulf, except 2-3 ft in the NW basin. For the forecast, strong high pressure continue to build over the area in the wake of a frontal boundary currently E of the area. The associated tight gradient between the front and strong high pressure continue to support strong to gale force NE winds and rough seas in the Florida Straits and portions of the SE gulf. These winds are forecast to continue through early Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Bay of Campeche and rough seas to 10 ft will diminish by this evening. Conditions further improve Sun into early next week as high pressure settles over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on the potential heavy rainfall event for Central America caused by Invest AL97. Scattered moderate convection is noted near Invest AL97 from 13N to 18N between 77W and 81W. A stationary front extends across the Yucatan Channel to the coast of Belize. A pre-frontal trough extends just off the coast of eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted around the pre- frontal trough and AL97 from 14N to 20N between 79W and 85W. Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring across the NW Caribbean with seas 5 to 9 ft. Meanwhile, in the central and eastern Caribbean, scattered thunderstorms are noted. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring in the central Caribbean, south of Jamaica and Hispaniola to 16N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Light to gentle winds are noted S of 16N to Central America. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted in the eastern basin. Seas range 3 to 5 ft across the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, outside of AL97, the stationary front will remain stationary while it gradually weakens through late Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the front and its remnants will prevail in the NW Caribbean through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north-central and portions of the SW Caribbean associated with AL97 will continue to affect these regions through Sat morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 75 nm of the strong cold front across the Bahamas. Please see the Special Features section for more details on winds and seas. In the central Atlantic, one trough has an axis along 47W with another along 37W. Divergence aloft coupled with the trough is leading to scattered moderate convection from 17N to 25N between 35W and 54W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 07N to 15N between 37W and 53W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in this area with 5 to 8 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, surface ridging prevails with fresh to strong winds and seas 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will completely stall this evening and start to weaken while lifting to the NW Fri before dissipating Sat. The remnant trough is forecast to be over the northern Bahamas offshore waters the remaining weekend. Ongoing gust to gale force NE winds and rough seas behind the front, and across the northern and central Bahamas offshore waters, the southern Florida seaboard as well as the Florida Straits will continue through early Fri. $$ AReinhart