000 AXNT20 KNHC 021750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Wind Warning: a strong cold front extends from 31N66W to 22.5N79W. Expect strong to gale-force winds and rough seas behind the front from 23N northward between 70W and 81W, including in the Atlantic exposures. Gusts to gale-force are forecast from 75W westward. Expect these conditions through the next 24 hours. Please, read the latest NHC High Seas forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about these warnings. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A disturbance (Invest 97L) currently in the central Caribbean Sea is moving westward toward the region. Plenty of tropical moisture and an unstable atmosphere is forecast to produce heavy rains Friday through early next week, especially for western Central America. Drier air will arrive by midweek. This rainfall is likely to result in flash flooding and possible landslides. Please refer to the local weather services for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06.5N17.5W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N17.5W to 02N43W. Isolates to scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 21W-36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridge prevails across the basin. Moderate to fresh winds prevail mainly N of 22N. Strong to near gale winds are noted in the SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida, While, fresh to strong northerly winds are present in the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 3-7 ft prevail N of 27N, while 7-11 ft seas prevail S of 27N, except for 12-14 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, strong high pressure continue to build over the area in the wake of a former cold front currently E of the area. The associated tight gradient between the front and strong high pressure is supporting strong to gale force NE winds and rough seas in the Florida Straits and the SE Gulf. These winds are forecast to continue through tonight/early Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Bay of Campeche and rough seas to 11 ft will diminish by this evening. Conditions further improve Sun into early next week as high pressure settles over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Invest AL97 is analyzed over the central Caribbean near 14.5N75.5W, 1007 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted within the low. A stationary front extending from the western tip of Cuba southwestward to Belize. While a pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the stationary front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the western half of the basin W of 74.5W in association with the pre-frontal trough. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds and seas to 10 ft are found in the NW Caribbean. Moderate easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the central and western Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure, AL97, located near 14.5N75.5W at 1200 UTC. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur before it moves inland over Central America Friday night or Saturday. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of Jamaica through tonight and across Central America on Friday and over the weekend. A stationary front extending from the western tip of Cuba southwestward to Belize will remain stationary while gradually weaken through late Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the front and its remnants will prevail in the NW Caribbean through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north-central and portions of the SW Caribbean associated with AL97 will continue to affect these regions through Sat morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the gale-force warning currently in effect for the W Atlantic. A strong cold front extends from 31N62W to 29N67W where it transitions to a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba. Ahead of the front a pre-frontal trough extends from 31N63W to 23N71W with scattered showers. To the E, a 1017 mb low is centered near 25N56.5W. Divergence aloft is producing scattered moderate convection from 07N to 13N between 45W and 58.5W. To the NE, a pair of surface troughs are enhancing convection from 16N-23N between 29W-47W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Moderate to rough seas are from 26N northward between 28W-42W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds cover most of the area. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will remain stationary through Fri when it will start to weaken before dissipating Sat. A remnant trough then will drift back to the W over the waters north of the Bahamas the remaining weekend. Gust to gale force NE winds and rough seas are ongoing behind the front across the northern and central Bahamas offshore waters, the southern Florida seaboard as well as the Florida Straits. These conditions are forecast to continue through early Fri. $$ KRV