000 AXNT20 KNHC 301023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Oct 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has entered the NW Gulf. The front will move SE across the entire basin by Wed evening. Gale force winds and building seas will follow the front beginning early this afternoon. Winds may reach storm-force in gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late Tue through Wed. Rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. The forecast calls for winds of 30 to 45 kt and seas in the 12 to 20 ft range over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, Tue evening into Wed morning. Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14.5W then continues westward to near 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to 06N30W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 20W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front has entered the NW Gulf and currently extends from SW Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas. Gale force winds and building seas are expected behind the front. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. High pressure centered over the SE of the United States extends a ridge across the remainder of the Gulf waters. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong easterly winds over the SE Gulf, mainly E of 84.5W, including the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere ahead of the front. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft based on a couple of altimeter passes. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is over the SE Gulf associated with an upper-level low spinning over the NE Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast: weather conditions across the Gulf will be associated with the passage of the above mentioned strong cold front through Wed evening. High pressure is expected in the wake of the front. Winds and seas will diminish significantly NW portions late Wed through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA An area of disturbed weather has formed over the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move westward during the next several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this week when the system reaches the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Caribbean. A surface trough is analyzed along 67W/68W. An elongated area of low pressure remains over the central Caribbean, with a surface trough extending from Haiti to a 1008 mb low pressure located near 14N75W to Costa Rica. Light and variable winds and seas in the 1 to 3 ft range are noted in association with this system. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the lee of Cuba based on satellite derived wind data. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the Yucatan Channel associated with an upper-level low spinning over the NE Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast: the elongated area of low pressure will shift slowly W and into the W central Caribbean through early Wed. This pattern will produce generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located near 25.5N73W or a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas continues to produce an area of gale-force winds on its northeast side. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. This system is moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a short-lived tropical storm appear to be decreasing. The low is expected to move slowly west-northwestward today and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front entering the forecast region. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force this morning. High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge southward across the waters between 55W and 65W. Another low pressure system is near 29N48W. Fresh to strong winds are mainly on the W side of the low center with seas of 8 to 9 ft. A cold front extends across the western Canary Islands to 25N25W to a 1002 mb low pressure located N of area near 33N35W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are seen in the wake of the front. A surface trough extends from 16N51W to near French Guiana/Suriname border. A few showers are near the trough axis. Gentle to moderate winds dominate most the Atlantic E of 60W with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft across the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W: a cold front is forecast to move across the NW waters Wed and reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas early Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. $$ GR