000 AXNT20 KNHC 151027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Sean is centered near 17.4N 46.2W at 15/0900 UTC or 960 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Weakening is forecast and Sean is forecast to become a remnant low later today or tonight, and then dissipate by late Monday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94) Gale Warning: An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 09N33W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves westward or west- northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of development within 48 hours. In anticipation of this system developing, a gale warning has been issued. Seas will build to over 12 ft by Mon morning, when the system is centered in the vicinity of 10N37W. Additional information on this system, including the gale warning, can be found in the High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and in the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov Central Atlantic Large Swell: A cold front extends from 31N38W to 27N48W, then becomes stationary to 25N56W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 120 nm SE of the cold front. Strong to near gale force SW winds are occurring within 360 nm east of the cold front, north of 27N. Seas of 12 to 16 ft are currently affecting waters north of 27N between 38W and 47W. Seas of 12 ft or greater will continue to affect the waters north of 27N between 35W and 47W through today before subsiding by this evening. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 26W from 03N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-17N between 22W-30W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N17W to invest AL94 to 09N38W. Scattered moderate convection is between the coast of Africa and 20W from 03N to 15N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the eastern Florida Panhandle near 29N83W to 22N98W. Fresh northerly winds are NW of the front. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from Key Largo, FL to 23N92W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough. Additional moderate convection prevails near the coast of southern Mexico near Veracruz. Gentle winds are over the SE Gulf, south of 26N and east of 90W, where seas are 1 to 3 ft. In the western Gulf, fresh northerly winds are occurring also to the south of the front, extending to 20N. Seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail over the western Gulf, while 3 to 4 ft seas prevail over the NE Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will continue moving SE across the basin through the weekend and early week with fresh winds and rough seas. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through mid week as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep-layered ridging extends across the Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the east Pacific monsoon trough and the Colombian coast, mainly south of 12N. Otherwise, the rest of the basin remains quiet. The latest ASCAT satellite data depicts gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin. Seas range from 2 to 4 ft across most of the basin. For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas will persist through tonight. Winds and seas will increase over the far northwest Caribbean starting tonight following a cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel. The front will stall from central Cuba to Belize Mon, and dissipate into mid week. Fresh NE winds and moderate wave heights will persist over the northwest Caribbean through late Wed as high pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression or storm will develop over the Atlantic during the next several days, possibly bringing winds to gale force and very rough seas to the waters east of the Leeward Islands by late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section on T.D. Sean, the Gale Warning for AL94, and the large swell area north of 27N between 35W and 48W. A weak cold front extends from 31N72W to 28N73W, then a trough continues to 25N80W. Fresh to strong W winds and 6 to 9 ft seas prevail W of the front. Over the western Atlantic, winds are generally moderate or stronger north of 23N and west of 65W. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere west of 50W. Winds are fresh or stronger within about 480 nm east of the special features cold front, mainly north of 24N and west of 30W. Seas of 8 ft or greater in association with the frontal system still extend as far west as 57W and as far south as 23N. Winds are mostly gentle north of 20N and east of 30W due to ridging. For the forecast W of 55W, expect fresh to strong winds over waters north of 30N and west of 70W today associated with a pair of frontal boundaries that are moving across the area. A reinforcing trough will maintain fresh NW winds off northeast Florida Mon. The second front will move E through the weekend, slow down and weaken from Bermuda to central Cuba by early Tue, then stall and dissipate from 31N60W through eastern Cuba by mid week. $$ ERA