000 AXNT20 KNHC 132327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Oct 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sean is centered near 14.9N 42.5W at 13/2100 UTC or 1070 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft. Sean is a sheared tropical storm and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident within 75 nm in the E semicircle. Sean will take a turn toward the northwest is expected later this evening, and this motion should continue for the next day or so. Sean is then expected to turn back toward the west-northwest by Sunday. Additional weakening is anticipated. Sean will likely become a post-tropical remnant low over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. West Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale force 990 mb low pressure is centered just N of the area near 32N62W. A cold front extends SW from the low to 29N77W then continuing as a stationary front to 1008 mb low pressure near Jacksonville, Florida at 31N82W. A warm front extends from 27N51W to 31N56W to the low. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 250 nm ENE of the front. Gale force winds are occurring N of 28N ahead of the front as confirmed by an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass which showed 30-40 kt winds. Peak seas are 12-16 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 23N to 29N between 63W and 79W continuing across S Florida, and from 24N to 29N between 46W and 46W. The gale force winds will continue ahead of the front as it moves SE across the northern Atlantic waters through the weekend. Continued scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as rough seas are expected with this frontal system. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 16N between 15W and 20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 29W, SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, from 15N southward and moving W at around 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure area (AL94) is along the wave near 09N29W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident within 300 nm in the NW semicircle of the low. Winds are currently 20 kt with the low with seas of 5-6 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by the end of the weekend while the disturbance begins to move westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional development is expected after that, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle portion of next week as the system moves steadily westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of development within the next 48 hours and a high chance within the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 1010 mb low pressure (AL94) near 09N29W to 06N35W. No ITCZ is evident to the W of the monsoon trough due to Tropical Storm Sean off to the NW-N. In addition to the convection associated with AL94 as described above, scattered moderate isolated strong is evident from 02N to 15N between 20W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of 1008 mb lows are located over the northern Florida Panhandle, one near Jacksonville and the other near Apalachicola. A trough, which is the remnants of an old front, extends from across Lake Okeechobee to the central Gulf near 24N89W. Scattered thunderstorms are S of the trough to 24N to the E of 88W across portions of S Florida. Another trough extends across the western Gulf from 27N91W to 21N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N to 28N between 88W and 92W. Strong thunderstorms are noted into the southern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds are noted in the basin with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, gentle breezes and slight seas will persist through the overnight hours across the basin, with scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the southeast Gulf along a trough. Winds and seas will increase following a cold front expected to enter the northwest Gulf early Sat, reach from near Port Charlotte, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by early Sun, then sweep to the southeast of the area Sun night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak ridge extends from N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to across central Cuba. A trough extends across the Gulf of Honduras from a 1006 mb low near 04N96W to 16N83W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf and along the northern coast of Honduras. Thunderstorms are also noted in the northern Colombian coast. Otherwise, no significant convection is noted over the rest of the basin. Mainly moderate E-SE winds are found across the Caribbean basin E of 83W, with moderate to fresh SE-S winds W of 83W including through the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere, highest offshore northern Colombia and in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds off Honduras between high pressure over Cuba and lower pressure off Belize will diminish overnight as the high pressure weakens. This pattern will leave mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across the Caribbean through late Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel Sun night, start to slow down and weaken from central Cuba to northern Belize Mon, then stall dissipate from eastern Cuba to central Honduras through mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic and on Tropical Storm Sean. Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on AL94. A ridge extends along 20N/21N to the S of the gale force cold frontal system. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are under the influence of this ridge across the waters S of 23N/24N away from Sean and AL94, along with seas of 3-6 ft, higher closer to Sean and the gale-force low. A trough stretches across the eastern Atlantic from 31N32W to 25N48W. Moderate to fresh winds are ahead of the trough, as well as N of 28N between 26W and 42W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft N of 27N between 29W and 38W, otherwise seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, see the Special Features section above. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong winds over waters north of 28N late Sat and Sun associated with a second front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Sat night. A reinforcing trough will maintain fresh to strong NW winds off northeast Florida Mon. The front will slow down and weaken from Bermuda to central Cuba by early Tue, then stall from 31N60W through eastern Cuba by mid week. $$ AReinhart