000 AXNT20 KNHC 111807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Oct 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of Mexico/Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-force Wind Warning: A 1000 mb low pressure center is near 27N94W, in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the 1000 mb low pressure center to the northern coastal areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A warm front extends eastward, and southeastward, from the 1000 mb low pressure center, to south Florida just to the south of Lake Okeechobee, and into the Atlantic Ocean to 28N76W. The front is stationary from 28N76W to 29N66W. The front is cold front 29N66W, beyond 31N53W. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are from 24N northward from the Florida Big Bend westward. Slight seas are elsewhere. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 120 nm to 420 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from the warm front northward; and affecting the NW half of Cuba. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure center is expected to strengthen along the front. The system will move eastward, through the N central and NE Gulf this afternoon through evening, then inland through N Florida tonight. Strong convective precipitation, and strong to gale-force winds, will accompany this weather system, from the northern Gulf through tonight. The sea heights are expected to peak near 13 feet this evening. The low pressure center will move through the W Atlantic Ocean early on Thursday. Expect strong to gale-force winds to the east of northern and central Florida on Thursday night. The feature will move to the east of 75W on Thursday night, and through the NE Atlantic Ocean from Friday through early Sat. Scattered thunderstorms with large and confused seas are expected to accompany this low pressure center. The sea heights are expected to peak around 15 feet on Friday. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. TROPICAL STORM SEAN: The center of Tropical Storm Sean, at 11/1500 UTC, is near 10.9N 34.4W. Sean is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The radius of tropical-storm force winds is: within 80 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are: within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 13 feet. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are within 1000 nm of T.S. SEAN in the SW semicircle. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Tropical Storm Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 09N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 360 nm of the center in the S semicircle. The precipitation pattern has been showing some signs of organization. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some more development of this system during the next several days. The wave will be moving westward through the eastern and central sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Please, refer to the website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. A tropical wave is inland, from northern Guatemala southward, along 90W/91W, from 18N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is on either side of the tropical wave, in Central America, and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border areas of Senegal and The Gambia, to the INVEST-AL94 1011 mb low pressure center, to 09N28W. The monsoon trough also is along 09N between 39W and 45W. The ITCZ is along 09N45W 10N56W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in clusters in the coastal plains of Sierra Leone and Liberia. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about 1000 mb low pressure center, the gale-force winds, and the warm front. A warm front extends from SW Florida to 1000 mb low pressure near 26N94W. The front and low pres will lift northward today, reaching along 29N-30N. The low pres is expected to strengthen along the front this morning over the NW Gulf, and move E-NE across the N central and NE Gulf this afternoon and evening, then inland across N Florida tonight. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms and strong to gale force winds will accompany this low pressure system and frontal boundary across the northern Gulf through tonight. High pressure across the Atlantic will build modestly westward into the eastern Gulf Fri through early Sat, before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf Sat morning and across the entire basin by Sun evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is inland, from northern Guatemala southward, along 90W/91W, from 18N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is on either side of the tropical wave, in Central America, and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Fresh SE winds cover much of the northeastern two-thirds of the area. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas are nearly everywhere from 80W eastward, accept for the waters that are about 210 nm to the north of Panama. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, including in the waters that are about 210 nm to the north of Panama. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W westward, beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from 74W westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in the water vapor imagery, from Nicaragua eastward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 11/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 0.57 in Monterrey in Mexico; and 0.17 in Montego Bay in Jamaica. .Weak high pressure across the Atlantic near 35N63W extends a ridge westward to the central Bahamas, and will shift slightly W-NW into Thu morning. Moderate to fresh E trade winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean through Thu then gradually diminish into the weekend. Scattered thunderstorms will prevail across the NW basin today NE of a tropical wave currently along 90W. Fresh SE to S winds will develop across the outer Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean today and become strong tonight through Thu night as low pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Sean. Please, read the Tropical Waves section, for details about the INVEST-AL94 low pressure center and tropical wave. A warm front extends from a 1000 mb 27N49W Gulf of Mexico low pressure center, to just to the south of Lake Okeechobee, and into the Atlantic Ocean to 28N76W. The front is stationary from 28N76W to 29N66W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 40W and 70W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 70W westward. The low pressure center is expected to strengthen along the front. The system will move eastward, through the N central and NE Gulf this afternoon through evening, then inland through N Florida tonight. Strong convective precipitation, and strong to gale-force winds, will accompany this weather system, from the northern Gulf through tonight. The sea heights are expected to peak near 13 feet this evening. The low pressure center will move through the W Atlantic Ocean early on Thursday. Expect strong to gale-force winds to the east of northern and central Florida on Thursday night. The feature will move to the east of 75W on Thursday night, and through the NE Atlantic Ocean from Friday through early Sat. Scattered thunderstorms with large and confused seas are expected to accompany this low pressure center. The sea heights are expected to peak around 15 feet on Friday. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 23N62W. A surface trough is along 31N32W 21N48W. The surface trough is to the south of a low pressure center that is to the north of the area. Mostly fresh to some strong westerly winds are from 23N northward between 20W and 50W. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are near this surface trough. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 210 nm to the south of the surface trough between 20W and 38W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds are from 26N northward between 45W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are: from 26N northward between 30W and 40W. Mostly moderate to slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic near 35N63W extends a ridge westward to the central Bahamas. A weak stationary front extending from 29N66W to just N of the NW Bahamas will drift N through tonight, while weak high pressure shifts W across the remainder of the Bahamas. Low pressure along a Gulf of Mexico front is expected to move eastward across N Florida tonight, then continue eastward and emerge across the W Atlc, bringing strong to gale force winds east of northern and central Florida Thu, then move E of 75W Thu night, and across the NE waters Fri through early Sat. Scattered thunderstorms with large and confused seas are expected to accompany this low pressure system. $$ mt/nr