906 AXNT20 KNHC 071728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Oct 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 18W, from 03N to 13N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the monsoon trough, is from 04N to 12N between 15W and 26W. A tropical wave is along 45W, from 06N to 17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. Based on Upper Air Sounding Data, visible satellite, and model diagnostics, the Caribbean tropical wave is relocated slightly east of earlier positions to near 68W. The wave extends from 18N southward over northern Venezuela. The westward motion is estimated to be 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 68W and 71W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues to 10N48W. The ITCZ continues from 10N48W to 10N62W. Outside of the convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is near the monsoon trough from 10N to 13N between 30W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A strong, reinforcing cold front extends from Cedar Key, Florida to Padre Island, Texas. Surface observations this morning indicate strong to near-gale force N winds within the northern Gulf waters behind the cold front. Wind gusts to gale force have also been reported at several stations. Additionally, N winds are strong to near-gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico. As a result of these wind speeds, seas are 4-7 ft across the north-central and western Gulf waters. 8-9 ft seas have been observed by buoys in the north-western Gulf within an area from 26N to 28N between 92W and 96W. Localized seas to 8 ft are also noted offshore Tampico and Veracruz. Light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed in the southeast Gulf ahead of both frontal boundaries. For the forecast, the strong, reinforcing cold front will surge south and overtake the stationary front by tonight. The merged front will extend from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche Sunday morning, then gradually weaken and stall from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula Mon. High pressure and fresh winds, strong in the western Gulf, will follow the front into Sun evening. The front will then drift northward Tue through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across most of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the Caribbean. East of the tropical wave along 68W, trades are moderate to fresh with 4-6 ft seas. West of 68W, trades are light to gentle, with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 23N into the SE Bahamas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will continue across the eastern Caribbean today then shift S of 17N and spread into the central Caribbean tonight through Mon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany a tropical wave along 69W through tonight. Moderate to fresh easterly trades will return to the east and central Caribbean, and moderate SE winds will develop across the NW Caribbean, Tue night through Wed, as the Atlantic ridge shifts W and builds across Florida. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above. The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe are north of 31N, and marine conditions are improving across the W Atlantic. Fresh to strong W to SW winds are within an area from 28N to 31N between 61W and 68W. Moderate to fresh W to SW winds are elsewhere north of 25N and west of 55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of a line from 28N53W to 23N69W in an area of slightly convergent SW winds. 1018 mb high pressure is just SE of this convergence zone, centered near 22N54W. A cold front enters the eastern Atlantic waters near 31N26W and extends to 21N45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the cold front. 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 21N31W. Seas are 8-12 ft north of a line from 31N24W to 25N40W to 31N70W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cyclonic winds associated with Post Tropical Cyclone Philippe will gradually diminish over the waters N of 27N through tonight. Large SE to SE swell across the northeastern waters will gradually diminish and give way to large NE swell tonight through Sun night. Weak high pressure will build W-NW along 24-25N across the Bahamas and into Florida Mon through Wed. $$ Mahoney