000 AXNT20 KNHC 062341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Oct 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe are centered N of 31N. Its proximity is enhancing strong winds and seas of 12-17 ft N of 28N between 59W-65W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8-12 ft prevail elsewhere N of 26N between 57W-74W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 25N between 50W-62W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 42W from 06N-17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis near 70W, S of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are along the northern half of the wave environment affecting the Mona Passage and Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from 10N29W to 09N40W, then resumes near 09N44W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N and E of 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary extends across the western half of the basin, analyzed as a stationary front from 30N87W to 26N93W, then as a cold front from that point to 19N96W. Moderate N to NE winds prevail behind the front N of 19N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft follow the front. Light to gentle variable winds and slight seas are elsewhere ahead of the front. For the forecast, the front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to just S of Veracruz on Sat, and by Sun, the front will reach from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche. High pressure and fresh to strong winds will follow the front through Sun evening. The front will weaken and then drift northward Mon through Wed as southerly return flow gradually develops across most of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean. Moderate SE winds and seas to 6 ft are to the E of the wave axis in the E Caribbean. Ahead of the wave and in the remainder Caribbean, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Expect light to gentle winds elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from a tropical wave that extends from Puerto Rico to Venezuela will persist over the central and eastern Caribbean through tonight. Moderate easterly trades will return to the east and central Caribbean Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe. Over the eastern a central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N30W SW to 21N46W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and rough seas to 9 ft follow this front while mainly fresh SW winds are within 150 nm ahead of it with seas to 8 ft. Scattered showers and tstms are also ahead of the front to 23W. Light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere in the subtropical Atlantic waters. For the forecast W of 65W, the remnants of Philippe will continue moving away from the region tonight. Conditions will gradually improve over impacted waters into Saturday. Weak high pressure will build across the area in the wake of Philippe. $$ ERA