000 AXNT20 KNHC 060529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Oct 06 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 28.2N 66.0W at 06/0300 UTC or 250 nm SSW of Bermuda, moving N at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are presently around 15 ft, mainly to the east of the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 65 to 200 nm to the northeast of the center. Philippe is expected to maintain this general motion with an increase in forward speed through Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night. Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but Philippe is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 11N and between 35W and 42W. A tropical wave just entered the Caribbean Sea and is near 63W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N and between 57W and 66W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 10N31W and 09N45W. The ITCZ extends from 09N45W to 09N53W to 11N60W. Isolated moderate convection is present from 04N to 10N and between 44W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate northerly winds follow a cold front extending from near southeast Louisiana to just south of Brownsville, Texas. A few showers are active south of the cold front. In addition, scattered moderate convection is moving into the western Gulf from northeast Mexico. Moderate northeasterly winds are seen in the coasts of Texas and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle breezes are noted. Combined seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front is expected to remain nearly stationary overnight. A new reinforcing front will move into the NW Gulf Fri, with the merging fronts reaching from the W Florida Panhandle to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico Fri evening, then reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Sat afternoon, and from South Florida to 22N90W to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. High pressure and fresh to locally strong winds will follow the front through Sun morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean and the Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are noted across the far eastern Caribbean, with seas 4 to 6 ft. Easterly swell from the Atlantic may be breaching some of the passages in this area as well. Light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere, due to a relatively weak ridging north of the area. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 28.2N 66.0W at 11 PM EDT, moving north at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Philippe will continue to move northward and pass to the W of Bermuda Fri afternoon and evening. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern Caribbean through at least Fri. Expect light to gentle winds elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from trailing outer rainbands of Philippe, and a tropical wave along 63W, are impacting the eastern and central Caribbean tonight. This convective activity is forecast to persist through Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Philippe. A cold front enters the central tropical Atlantic near 31N35W and continues southwestward to 26N48W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary, with southwesterly fresh to locally strong winds. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are present behind the front, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found south of 20N and west of 43W. Seas in this region are 6 to 8 ft. Similar winds and seas are also occurring in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 28.2N 66.0W at 11 PM EDT, moving north at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Philippe will continue moving northward and reach near 29.2N 65.8W Fri morning, then move N of the forecast area near 32.5N 65.7W Fri afternoon. Philippe will continue on a northward path and is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Saturday evening. Weak high pressure will build across the area in the wake of Philippe. $$ KRV