000 AXNT20 KNHC 050004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Oct 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 22.6N 65.9W at 04/2100 UTC or 255 nm N of St. Thomas, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 15N to 27N between 62W and 67W. Associated heavy rainfall could still produce isolated flash flooding across portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into this evening, with rains diminishing late tonight into Thu. Seas in excess of 12 ft are noted with 150 nm to the east of the center and within 30 nm to the west of center, with peak seas to 18 ft. Philippe is expected to pick up speed moving northward tonight, maintaining tropical storm strength. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the island. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31/32W from 03N to 14N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 27W and 36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 17N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 07N to 12.5N between 50W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from 16N19W to 10N27W to 08N36W. The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 08N47W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 10N between 37W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and tstorms are over the west-central Gulf offshore the lower Texas coast, with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Fresh E winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across most of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over just about the entire basin. As the gradient slackens through Thu, this will allow for these winds to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. A cold front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Fri into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to strong convection related to Tropical Storm Philippe is over the NE Caribbean north of 15N between 62W and 67W. However, winds have diminished to moderate and seas have subsided to 5 ft or less. Please refer to the Special Features section for additional details on Tropical Storm Philippe. A broad mid to upper level trough reaches from off the Carolina coast southward through central Cuba to off the coast of Nicaragua. Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coast of southeast Cuba and near Hispaniola. Isolated thunderstorms prevail across the remainder of the basin east of 81W, with somewhat drier conditions in the NW basin. East of 68W, winds are moderate SE with seas 3-5 ft. In the Yucatan Channel, winds are moderate to fresh from the ENE with seas 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are mainly light to gentle with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, light to gentle trade winds will be over the basin through the next few days, except for moderate to locally fresh southerly winds in the eastern Caribbean tonight into Thu. A tropical wave currently moving across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles will reach the eastern Caribbean on Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Philippe. An upper-level trough extending from the Carolinas southward to the western Caribbean is inducing scattered thunderstorms north of 26.5N between 73W and 79W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 27N to 31N between 61W and 68W. Fresh E winds and 6-8 ft seas are over the western Atlantic north and northeast of the Bahamas, outside of Philippe. A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 26N40.5W, with a surface ridge extending from 30N30W to the high pres to 26N55W. To the north of this ridge, scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of a line extending from 31N37W to 28.5N45W to 28N54W. Fresh W winds and 6-8 ft seas are also found to the north of that surface ridge. Some showers and tstorms are also seen in the NE Atlantic from 21N to 29N between 16W and 26W in association with a surface trough. In the tropical latitudes, fresh trades and 6-7 ft seas prevail from 10N to 22N between 40W and 61W. For the forecast, Philippe will continue northward over the next two to three days, and is forecast to be well north of the area by late Sat as it transitions to an extratropical system. The pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support fresh northeast winds north of the Bahamas through tonight, then diminish afterward. $$ Hagen