000 AXNT20 KNHC 040608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 04 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Philippe, at 04/0300 UTC, is near 20.1N 65.5W. Philippe is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. The radius of tropical-storm force winds is: within 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 140 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are: within 210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 75 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 17 feet. Rough seas are elsewhere within 500 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 200 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 300 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W, from 14N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: most of the surrounding precipitation also is related to the precipitation that is close to the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 17N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 435 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N to 26N between 44W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 08N29W. The ITCZ continues from 08N29W to 06N40W, to 06N47W. Precipitation:widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N to 13N from 25W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front passes through the Bahamas near 23N75W to NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N to 28N between 92W and 95W. Strong NE winds are from 23N northward from 90W eastward. Moderate seas are from the Yucatan Channel to 28N between 83W and 94W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the north of the line that runs from the middle Texas Gulf coast to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters supporting fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf tonight, then begin to diminish. Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. A cold front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe. A surface trough extends from the NE Yucatan Peninsula for about 400 nm to the ESE in the Caribbean Sea. Broad surface low pressure, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation covers the northern half of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate winds have been within 240 nm of Tropical Storm Philippe in the NW semicircle. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, are everywhere else in the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N/12N, from 73W westward, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N southward from 67W westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation, are in the rest of the area that is from 70W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 04/0000 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 2.38 in Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 20.1N 65.5W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves to near 21.2N 65.9W Wed morning, to near 22.8N 66.4W Wed evening and to near 24.9N 66.7W Thu morning. Philippe will continue to pull farther north and well away from the area through Fri. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Philippe will start to subside on Wed. Light to gentle trade winds will be over the basin through the next few days, except for moderate to fresh southerly winds in the eastern Caribbean through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe. Fresh to moderate SE winds are from 15N southward between 60W and 65W. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N54W, to 28N60W, to 24N70W, to NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the northwest of the line 30N36W 25N60W 20N70W. A surface trough and a low pressure center are from 29N northward between 28W and 32W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 30W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 28N northward from 75W westward; and within 390 nm to the west of the 53W tropical wave from 07N to 16N. Fresh SE winds are from 02N southward from 30W westward. Fresh NE winds are from 08N to 25N between 33W and 44W. Fresh E-to-SE winds are from 06N between 44W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, away from Tropical Storm Philippe. Moderate seas span the area, away from Tropical Storm Philippe. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 20.1N 65.5W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves to near 21.2N 65.9W Wed morning, to near 22.8N 66.4W Wed evening, to near 24.9N 66.7W Thu morning, to near 27.8N 66.4W Thu evening, then strengthen slightly as it moves to near 30.7N 66.0W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Philippe is forecast to be well north of the area by late Sat as it transitions to an extratropical system. Otherwise, a weakening cold front extends from near 31N54W to 24N70W and to western Cuba near 23N80W. The northern portion of the cold front will shift east of the area Wed as a trough, while the remainder of the front is expected to become stationary and gradually dissipate through Wed night. The gradient over the western part of the area will support fresh to strong northeast winds north of the Bahamas through early Wed morning before diminishing. $$ MT/JA