000 AXNT20 KNHC 030604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 03 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Philippe, at 03/0600 UTC, is near 18.0N 62.4W. This position also is about 75 KM/40 nm to the E of St. Martin. Philippe is moving toward the WNW, or 300 degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. The radius of tropical-storm force winds is: within 110 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are: within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 20 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 270 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W south of 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to the east of the tropical wave. The precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W south of 17N. It is moving westward 15-20 kt. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 600 nm to the east of the surface trough, and within 420 nm to the west of the surface trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N17W 07N21W 07N27W 04N35W. The ITCZ continues from 04N35W, to 02N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 10N from 35W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is along 25N/26N between SE Florida and 90W. A surface trough continues from 90W to the coast of Texas near 26N/27N. Strong NE winds are from 23N northward from 90W eastward. Moderate seas are from 24N to 29N between 82W and 94W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from the surface trough northward from 90W westward. Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, are elsewhere. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward within 450 nm of the coast of the U.S.A. and Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong is spread throughout the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the SE Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, through the NW corner of Guatemala, to the north central Yucatan Peninsula, to 23N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of the surface trough. A stationary front over the east-central Gulf will dissipate on Tue. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will expand southward from the N waters to the central basin through Tue night before winds start to diminish. Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. On Sat, a new cold front is anticipated to reach the NW Gulf and cause increasing winds and building seas in the western portion of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe. Moderate winds have been within 300 nm of Tropical Storm Philippe in the NW quadrant. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, are everywhere else in the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N, from 75W in Colombia westward, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: most of the precipitation is from Panama and Costa Rica southward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation, are from 70W westward. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.8N 62.1W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves to near 18.4N 62.8W Tue morning, to near 19.7N 63.4W Tue evening, to near 21.3N 64.0W Wed morning, to near 23.0N 64.4W Wed evening, to near 24.8N 64.7W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, then strengthen some as it begins to track northeastward to near 26.9N 64.3W Thu evening, and to near 31.6N 62.8W Fri evening. Philippe then will accelerate northeastward well away from the area Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, a stationary front extends from near 31N60W southwestward to 26N71W, to across the central Bahamas and to South Florida. N of 29N, the weak cold front will continue progressing eastward until moving east of the forecast waters on Wed. S of 29N, the frontal boundary will dissipate on Tue, but fresh to strong northeast winds will continue north of the Bahamas through Wed before diminishing. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe. A cold front passes through 31N60W, to 26N70W, beyond south Florida along 25N/26N, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to the south and to the southeast of the stationary front. Scattered strong precipitation is from 29N northward between 40W and 50W. This precipitation is associated with a warm front that is to the north of the area. A surface trough is along 31N25W 24N32W. The surface trough is the remnant feature of an earlier frontal boundary. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 600 nm to the SE of the surface trough. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, span the rest of the Atlantic Ocean, away from Tropical Storm Philippe. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.8N 62.1W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves to near 18.4N 62.8W Tue morning, to near 19.7N 63.4W Tue evening, to near 21.3N 64.0W Wed morning, to near 23.0N 64.4W Wed evening, to near 24.8N 64.7W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, then strengthen some as it begins to track northeastward to near 26.9N 64.3W Thu evening, and to near 31.6N 62.8W Fri evening. Philippe will then accelerate northeastward well away from the area Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, a stationary front extends from near 31N60W southwestward to 26N71W, to across the central Bahamas and to South Florida. N of 29N, the weak cold front will continue progressing eastward until moving east of the forecast waters on Wed. S of 29N, the frontal boundary will dissipate on Tue, but fresh to strong northeast winds will continue north of the Bahamas through Wed before diminishing. $$ MT/JA