000 AXNT20 KNHC 301745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Sep 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 16.9N 56.3W at 30/1500 UTC or 400 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving SW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12.5N to 18.5N between 50W and 58W. A slow turn toward the west-southwest and west is expected through early Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest Sunday night through Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Philippe could become a hurricane early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 21.2N 50.4W at 30/1500 UTC or 740 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 17 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 16N to 21N between 41W and 49W. The storm should move generally northwestward through Sunday and turn northward on Monday. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rina could dissipate early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 31.5W, from 03N to 20N, moving westward 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 15.5N between 21W and 40W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Dakar to 10.5N27W to 10N35W. The ITCZ continues from 10N35W to 10N51W. For information about convection, see the Tropical Waves Section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from north of Tampa, Florida NW to New Orleans supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NE Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the central Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche. This trough is producing scattered moderate convection in the central Gulf as well as in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are depicted in the northern offshore waters N of 27N in association to the aforementioned front, with seas 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail in the remaining basing along with seas 2-4 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the waters N of 26N with moderate seas through the forecast period. The moderate to fresh winds will expand southward to the central basin Sun night through Wed night. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast elsewhere through Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.9N 56.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Manly moderate trades winds prevail in the central and northeastern Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft. Otherwise, gentle trade winds, with seas 1-3 ft are elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.9N 56.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Philippe will move to 16.8N 56.6W this evening, 17.0N 57.2W Sun morning, 17.6N 58.0W Sun evening, 18.5N 58.9W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.7N 59.6W Mon evening, and 21.0N 59.9W Tue morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves to near 24.9N 59.3W early Wed. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside by the middle of next week. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. Light to gentle winds are forecast basin-wide Mon through Wed, except moderate to fresh trades developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. In addition, please refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.9N 56.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. A stationary front is over the NE Florida offshore waters extending SW to north of Tampa, Florida to New Orleans. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 28N and west of 76.7W in association with the front. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front along with moderate seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are depicted north of Haiti in association to an upper-level trough. Otherwise, a cold front is in the north-central Atlantic extending from 31N36W to 29N46W to 31N58W. Scattered moderated convection is found ahead of the front, north of 26 between 30W and 40W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are N of this boundary along with seas up to 8 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas 3-6 ft will prevail. For the forecast W of 65W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.9N 56.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Philippe will move to 16.8N 56.6W this evening, 17.0N 57.2W Sun morning, 17.6N 58.0W Sun evening, 18.5N 58.9W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.7N 59.6W Mon evening, and 21.0N 59.9W Tue morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves to near 24.9N 59.3W early Wed. Rough seas generated from the storm will impact the waters E of 65W through at least the middle of next week. A stationary front off the coast of northern Florida will start to shift south and east as a cold front, with fresh to locally strong winds north of the front later this weekend into early next week. $$ KRV