000 AXNT20 KNHC 301050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Sep 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 17.1N 55.9W at 30/0900 UTC or 420 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving SSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 19 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 19N between 50W and 57W. A slow turn toward the southwest and west is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest Sunday night and Monday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Philippe could become a hurricane early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 20.9N 49.5W at 30/0900 UTC or 790 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 15N to 21N between 42W and 49W. A general west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Rina is forecast to gradually weaken over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 30W, from 04N to 20N, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 13N between 20W and 40W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of Senegal/Guinea-Bissau to 09N27W to 08N35W. The ITCZ continues from 08N35W to 05N50W. For information about convection, see the Tropical Waves Section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Cedar Key, Florida NW to New Orleans supporting scattered showers and tstms in the NE Gulf of Mexico as well as moderate to fresh NE to E winds along the northern offshore waters N of 26N. Moderate seas are in this area of stronger winds. Light to gentle winds prevail in the remaining basing along with sight seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across the northern Gulf offshore waters N of 26N with moderate seas through the forecast period, expanding to the central basin Sun night through Wed night. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast elsewhere through Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N 55.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving south-southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, Philippe will move to 16.9N 56.2W this afternoon, 16.9N 56.7W Sun morning, 17.3N 57.5W Sun afternoon, 18.0N 58.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.2N 59.0W Mon afternoon, and 20.7N 59.5W Tue morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves near 24.1N 59.3W early Wed. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside by the middle of next week. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. Light to gentle winds are forecast basin-wide Mon through Wed, except moderate to fresh trades developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N 55.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving south-southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. A stationary front is over the NE Florida offshore waters extending SW to Cedar Key, Florida to New Orleans. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front along with moderate seas. Otherwise, a cold front is in the north-central Atlantic extending from 31N36W to 29N48W to 31N57W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are N of this boundary along with seas to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, Philippe will move to 16.9N 56.2W this afternoon, 16.9N 56.7W Sun morning, 17.3N 57.5W Sun afternoon, 18.0N 58.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.2N 59.0W Mon afternoon, and 20.7N 59.5W Tue morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves near 24.1N 59.3W early Wed. Rough seas generated from the storm will impact the waters E of 65W through at least the middle of next week. $$ Ramos