000 AXNT20 KNHC 291747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.3N 55.3W at 29/1500 UTC or 440 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WSW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 17 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 19N between 51W and 56W. Philippe is forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the west-southwest through Saturday night. A gradual turn toward the west and northwest is forecast Sunday and Sunday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 19.4N 47.0W at 29/1500 UTC or 920 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 17 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 13.5N to 19.5N between 40W and 47W. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected during the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening through early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 23W, from 05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 16W and 26W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 14.5N17.5W and moves southward to 08.5N27W and to 07N39W. The ITCZ continues from 07N39W to 06N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 10N between 28W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from north of Tampa, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana. While a pre-frontal trough extends from south Florida to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This front is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the northern, central, and eastern Gulf waters. Surface ridging over the SE CONUS just N of the front is tightening slightly the pressure gradient, thus supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds along the northern Gulf waters N of 27N, with seas 2- 5 ft. Elsewhere outside of convection, light to gentle winds with seas 1-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across the northern Gulf offshore waters N of 26N with moderate seas through the forecast period, expanding to the central basin Sun night into Tue. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast elsewhere through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough located south of Haiti is producing scattered moderate convection in the area. Another area of convection is depicted in the western Caribbean is association to a trough that extends to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico. A weak pressure gradient in the Caribbean is supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central Caribbean and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Seas are slight basin-wide. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N 55.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Philippe will move to 18.1N 55.4W this evening, 17.8N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.1W Sat evening, 17.3N 56.5W Sun morning, 17.5N 56.9W Sun evening, and 18.4N 57.5W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves to near 21.5N 58.0W early Tue. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside toward the end of the week south of 17N, but will continue 8 to 12 ft north of 17N into the weekend. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections, for convection in the basin not related to the tropical cyclones. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from the western Bahamas to 31N and west of 74W in association to a stationary front. Behind the front northeast fresh winds are depicted, with seas up to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast and east winds and moderate seas dominate the subtropical waters west and east of the tropical cyclones. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N 55.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Philippe will move to 18.1N 55.4W this evening, 17.8N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.1W Sat evening, 17.3N 56.5W Sun morning, 17.5N 56.9W Sun evening, and 18.4N 57.5W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves to near 21.5N 58.0W early Tue. Rough seas ahead of the storm will continue to spread east of 68W through the end of the week. $$ KRV