000 AXNT20 KNHC 290550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Philippe, at 29/0300 UTC, is near 18.3N 55.0W. Philippe is moving toward the WSW, or 240 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. The radius of tropical-storm force winds is: within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are: within 210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 210 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 20 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 280 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Rina, at 29/0300 UTC, is near 18.4N 46.6W. Rina is moving toward the NW, or 315 degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The radius of tropical-storm force winds is: within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are: within 135 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 135 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 14 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 225 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/21W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 90 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 08N to 10N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 06N to 14N from 26W eastward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 11N15W, to 11N19W, to 07N31W. The ITCZ continues from 07N31W, to 05N38W, and 04N44W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the remainder of the area that is within 360 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 27N northward from 95W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N northward. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 26N88W, to the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in the Yucatan Peninsula is from 19N to 21N between 88W and 90W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 26N southward from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the coastal waters of the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight sea heights, cover the remainder of the area. Fresh E winds are expected through the forecast period due to strong high pressure ridging over the southeastern United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A NE-to-SW oriented central Gulf of Mexico surface trough reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 83W westward. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 200 mb shows weak cyclonic wind flow with a trough in parts of the NW corner of the area. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 200 mb shows an inverted trough from northern Colombia to Hispaniola. The GFS model for 700 mb shows comparatively broader cyclonic wind flow with two separate inverted troughs. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 80W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 150 nm to the north of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Fresh NE to E winds are within 180 nm to the south of Hispaniola. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area. The comparatively highest sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. Slight sea heights are in the rest of the area. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W in Colombia westward, beyond Costa Rica. No significant deep convective precipitation is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N 55.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will move to 18.2N 55.2W Fri morning, 17.9N 55.6W Fri evening, 17.6N 55.9W Sat morning, 17.2N 56.2W Sat evening, 17.0N 56.6W Sun morning, and 17.0N 57.0W Sun evening. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves near 18.8N 57.6W late Mon. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside toward the end of the week south of 17N, but will continue 8 to 12 ft north of 17N into the weekend. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. A cold front/stationary front are along 31N and to the north of 31N between 40W and 75W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 29.5N northward between 40W and 50W. One surface trough curves along 31N51W 29N60W 25N66W. A second surface trough curves along 28N67W 25N69W 23N71W. A third surface trough is along 30N78W, to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to 26N82W just off the coast of SW Florida. A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb 32N75W low pressure center, to central Florida, and it curves through the NE Gulf of Mexico toward SE coastal Louisiana. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N to 31N between 72W and 75W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward, away from the two tropical storms. Rough seas are from Tropical Storm Philippe toward the north and the northwest. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are from 18N to 23N from 20W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 13N to 23N between 23W and 39W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic to 25N between 60W and 70W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N 55.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will move to 18.2N 55.2W Fri morning, 17.9N 55.6W Fri evening, 17.6N 55.9W Sat morning, 17.2N 56.2W Sat evening, 17.0N 56.6W Sun morning, and 17.0N 57.0W Sun evening. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves near 18.8N 57.6W late Mon. Rough seas ahead of the storm are east of 63W, and will continue to spread east of 68W through the end of the week. $$ MT