000 AXNT20 KNHC 250609 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Sep 25 2023 Corrected to include the latest information on Invest 91L Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N 43.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Peak seas near the center are up to 22 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 270 nm across the eastern semicircle and 75 nm across the western semicircle. A continued west-northwest motion is expected for the next day or two, with a gradual turn to the northwest anticipated by mid- week. Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Tropical Storm Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave (Invest 91L) has its axis along 28W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 09N28W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 14N and between 25W and 37W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around mid-week as the system moves west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. For more information, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure (AL91) near 09N28W and then to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 13N47W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface trough extends from western Florida to the Yucatan peninsula. Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft is enhancing the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the SE Gulf, especially off SW Florida and the Florida Straits. Fairly tranquil weather conditions are found elsewhere in the basin. The weak pressure gradient across the Gulf supports moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft north of 23N and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a surface trough over the southeast Gulf accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms will drift slowly into the western Gulf through the early part of the week and dissipate. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will persist over the north-central and northeast Gulf. This pattern will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas across the basin through the middle of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant tropical moisture and a favorable upper level pattern continue to sustain scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 19N and west of 75W. Scattered showers are also noted in the eastern Atlantic, affecting the Lesser Antilles. Isolated showers dot the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A building subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the strongest winds occurring off northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are found in the eastern Caribbean Sea, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh to strong pulses off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia during mainly the overnight and early morning hours into mid week. Seas will build in mixed NE and E swell across the waters east of the Leeward Islands starting Mon night, ahead of Tropical Storm Philippe. Philippe is expected to turn NW before reaching 55W, and move into the central Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Philippe. The storm activity described in the Gulf of Mexico section is also generating a few showers and thunderstorms over the NW Bahamas. Farther east, a surface trough between Bermuda and Hispaniola and divergence aloft continue to produce isolated to scattered moderate convection, especially north of 25N and between 58W and 65W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by an expansive 1026 mb subtropical ridge centered several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds and moderate seas are present west of 55W. Similarly, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found off the coast of Africa, mainly 18N to 27N and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate mixed seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe is well east of the area over the central Atlantic near 17.1N 43.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west- northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Philippe will continue to move west- northwest for the next day or two, with a gradual turn to the northwest anticipated by mid- week. Looking ahead, this path will place the center of the storm near 21.6N 54.0W Wed evening and 23.4N 55.9W by late Thu and 25.5N 57.0W by late Fri. Regardless of the exact position of the center later in the week, rough seas ahead of the storm can be expected east of 60W starting late Tue. Elsewhere, seas may build by Thu north of the Bahamas and east of Florida in NE swell. $$ DELGADO