000 AXNT20 KNHC 240958 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Sep 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 15.6N 41.4W at 24/0900 UTC or 1000 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas near the center are up to 14 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the northeastern semicircle. A continued westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected into early next week. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Philippe. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 08N and between 15W and 20W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 68W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the coast of Venezuela at the base of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and to 08N25W to 11N30W, and again from 13N45W to 07N50W. No deep convection is noted aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging extends from 1011 mb high pressure to the coast of South Texas. Farther south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the southeast Gulf along a surface trough reaching from near Key West, Florida to Cancun, Mexico. This pattern is supporting gentle NE breezes and slight seas across the basin. For the forecast, a surface trough over the southeast Gulf accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms will drift slowly into the western Gulf through the early part of the week and dissipate. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will persist over the north-central and northeast Gulf. This pattern will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas across the basin through the middle of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft associated with a broad upper trough extending southward through Cuba is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northwest Caribbean. Thunderstorms are also active along the monsoon trough off Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh trade winds are noted over the eastern and central Caribbean, with fresh winds pulsing along the coast of South America. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft in these areas. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh to strong pulses off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia during mainly the overnight and early morning hours. Looking ahead, seas will build in mixed NE and E swell across waters east of the Leeward Islands starting Mon, ahead of newly formed Tropical Storm Philippe, currently over the eastern Atlantic. Philippe is expected to turn NW before reaching 55W next week, and move into the central Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Philippe. Surface observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate a surface trough across the northern Bahamas to the Cay Sal area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the trough. Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active near another trough from 22N to 28N between 60W and 65W. Elsewhere outside of the immediate area of Philippe, weak high pressure is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough over the northern Bahamas will move westward into Florida through late today. Weak high pressure will build from the north-central Atlantic north of 28N in the wake of the trough. Looking ahead, seas will build in mixed NE and E swell across waters northeast of the Leeward Islands starting Mon, ahead of Tropical Storm Philippe. Philippe is centered near 15.6N 41.4W at 24/0900 UTC or 1000 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Philippe is expected to turn NW and stay east of 55W Wed and Thu. Also, low pressure moving off the eastern seaboard may bring fresh NE to E winds and building seas off northeast Florida by late Wed. $$ Christensen