000 AXNT20 KNHC 140000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Sep 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lee is centered near 27.6N 67.7W at 14/0000 UTC, or 320 nm SSW of Bermuda, moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center of Lee, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 24N to 28N between 65W and 69W. Peak seas associated with Lee are currently around 42 ft, with the 12 ft seas extending 420 nm in the NW, 360 nm in the NE, 330 nm in the SE and 390 nm in the SW quadrants. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days, however, Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous hurricane into the weekend. Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States and are beginning to reach Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Margot is centered near 34.7N 40.6W at 13/2100 UTC or 690 nm WSW of the Azores, moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm NE and 30 nm SW semicircles of the center of Margot. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 32N to 36N between 38W and 42W. The peak seas are currently around 32 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 200 nm NE, 190 nm SE, 140 nm SW and 170 nm NW quadrants. Margot is forecast to meander over the north Atlantic within weak steering currents through this weekend. Some weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Lee and Margot at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are showing some signs of organization. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 18N between 32W and 41W. The low-level circulation associated with this system is gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as the low moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in 48 hours and through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 28W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis from 06N to 11N between 28W and 32W. Another tropical wave is along 34W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is associated with AL97 mentioned in the Special Features section. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to a 1009 mb low pressure (AL97) located near 12N34W to 11N45W. There is no ITCZ at this time. Outside of the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 10N between 15W and 20W, and from 07N to 11N between 41W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure of 1015 mb located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near 26N88W dominates the basin. This pattern is maintaining light winds and slight seas across the Gulf waters. A stationary front is meandering across the northern Gulf states generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Once again, showers and thunderstorms have flare-up over the Yucatan Peninsula while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a weak ridge across the northern Gulf will dominate the basin throughout the forecast period, supporting mainly light to gentle winds N of 24N and gentle to moderate winds S of 24N. Moderate return flow will develop across the W and SW Gulf Thu night. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the western Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche each late afternoon and evening through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Seas generated by Major Hurricane Lee continue to impact the northeast Caribbean. Please read the Special Features section for more details. The subtropical ridge that is normally north of the region is disrupted by Hurricane Lee, resulting in gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Northerly swell generated by Lee continues to propagate through the passages of the NE Caribbean, including the Anegada and Mona Passages where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Seas of 3-5 ft dominate most of the eastern Caribbean while seas of 1-3 ft are seen elsewhere. A trailing convergence band of Lee extends across far eastern Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are over parts of Central America and western Cuba. For the forecast, Hurricane Lee is expected to turn toward the N through Fri and exit the region. Large N-NW swell across the adjacent Atlantic will move through the NE Caribbean Passage through early Thu before gradually diminishing Thu night and then decreasing quickly Fri. Moderate E trade winds will return to the Caribbean on Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information about Major Hurricane Lee and Hurricane Margot, and invest area AL97. High pressure is displaced to the NE of Bermuda due to hurricanes Lee and Margot. Large swell generated by these hurricanes continue to propagate across the forecast waters. Seas in excess of 8 ft dominate the area N of 18N between 55W and 78W due to Lee, and N of 26N and E of 55W due to Margot. Outside of the hurricanes, seas are generally 5-7 ft based on several altimeter passes. To the S, gentle trade winds prevail from 45W to near the Lesser Antilles. An area of moderate to locally fresh NE winds is observed per scatterometer data from 14N to 25N E of 30W, and from 16N to 22N between 30W and 38W. These winds are also affecting the Cabo Verde Islands. Another high pressure center is E of the Azores Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Lee will move to near 28.7N 68.1W late tonight, then pass to the WSW of Bermuda near 30.9N 68.2W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, and continue to gradually weaken as it lifts to N of the area near 33.4N 67.8W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Lee is forecast to weaken further as it continues to pull away from the area through the weekend. High pressure will build across the area in its wake. Low pressure AL97 may approach the far eastern part of the area Mon and Mon night, possibly as a tropical cyclone. $$ GR/Hagen