589 AXNT20 KNHC 081744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Sep 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lee is centered near 18.2N 54.5W at 08/1500 UTC or 490 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. 12 ft seas are within 240 NM in the NE, 180 NM in the SE, 120 NM in the SW, and 210 NM in the NW quadrants with seas to 48 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 180 NM of the center. The system is expected to continue moving at the same direction through early next week with a significant decrease in forward speed. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, however Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week. Peak seas remain extremely large near the center of Lee with values of 40-50 ft. Large easterly swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will reach the passages of the NE Caribbean early Sat, the Anegada Passage by midday Sat, and the Mona Passage Sun. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Tropical Storm Margot is centered near 18.0N 32.5W at 08/1500 UTC or 500 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 12 ft seas are 45 NM in the NE, 15 NM in the SW, and 30 NM in the NW quadrants with peak seas of 13 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 240 NM of the NE semicircle. The movement toward the west- northwest is expected to continue for the next day or two, with a turn towards a more northwestward motion early next week. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane later this weekend. Peak seas are expected to reach 20-25 ft in a couple of days near the center of Margot. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lee NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave is identified existing the West African coast near 20W extending from 05N-18N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-15N between 18W-22W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from Senegal near 13N16W and extends west-southwestward to 12N21W, then resumes from 11N32W to 07N38W. ITCZ then continues from 07N38W to 07N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-15N between 18W-22W and from 05N-08N between 35W-38W. The eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough crosses Central America into the Caribbean near 09N82W and extends to a 1008 mb low near 11N76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N west of 79W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough extends across the northern Florida peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico from 30N82W to 29N85W with scattered moderate to strong convection north of 26N between 79W-85W. This is being supported by a mid to upper-level trough centered over Georgia and northern Florida. Away from thunderstorms, winds across the Gulf are very quiescent with light to gentle breezes prevailing due to a weak ridge in place. Seas are only 1-2 ft. For the forecast, the weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters throughout the forecast period supporting only light to moderate winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is forcing only moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue in the central and E Caribbean into the weekend. Large easterly swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will reach the passages of the NE Caribbean early Sat, the Anegada Passage by midday Sat, and the Mona Passage Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning for information about Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm Margot. In addition to the two tropical cyclones, a prominent surface trough extends from 23N74W to 31N67W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 NM of the trough axis, but no significant winds or seas are in association with the system. A expansive Bermuda/Azores High is centered well north of our waters with ridging extending to the Georgia border to the west and to 28N20W to the east. South of the ridge line, trades are generally gentle to moderate away from the tropical cyclones. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 70W and 4-8 ft east of 70W away from the two systems. For the forecast W of 55W, Lee will move to 19.0N 56.1W this evening, 20.0N 57.9W Sat morning, 20.8N 59.4W Sat evening, 21.5N 60.8W Sun morning, 22.1N 62.0W Sun evening, and 22.7N 63.1W Mon morning. Lee will change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.5N 65.5W early Tue. Large swell from Hurricane Lee will begin to impact the Anegada Passage and adjacent waters Sat morning, and reach the Mona Passage beginning early Sun morning. Beyond Mon, Lee is expected to begin to turn NW and slowly weaken. $$ Landsea