000 AXNT20 KNHC 081106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Category Five Hurricane Lee is near 17.8N 53.5W at 5 AM EDT, or about 630 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt. Minimum central pressure is 926 mb. Seas 12 ft or greater extend outward from the center up to 240 nm NE quadrant, 150 nm SE quadrant, 90 nm SW quadrant, and 210 nm NW quadrant. 0100 UTC Sentinel altimeter data measured peak wave heights to 49 ft in the eastern eyewall. Numerous scattered to strong convection is seen up to 45 nm in the NW semicircle, and 150 nm in the SE semicircle. Lee is forecast to maintain a W-NW motion through Sun, with only minor fluctuations in intensity, while gradually slowing down its forward speed. Lee is expected to pass well north of the Virgin and northern Leeward Islands, and Puerto Rico Sun through Mon. Lee is forecast to remain a major hurricane through early next week. Large swells generated by Lee should reach the Leeward Islands tonight, and the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola this weekend, and finally the Bahamas and Bermuda by early Mon. Long-period swell will race well ahead of Lee to the west and northwest, and reach the Atlantic coastlines of Florida and the southeastern U.S. late Sun through Mon. This is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip currents along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sun and persist through at least the middle of next week. Please consult products from your local forecast weather office. Tropical Storm Margot is near 17.4N 30.8W at 5 AM EDT, or about 460 miles W-NW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Seas 12 ft or greater extending outward up to 30 nm in the NE and 15 nm in the SW quadrants, with peak seas to 13 ft. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is found within 270 nm N and 150 nm S of the center. Margot is forecast to maintain its current motion through this weekend, then turn toward the northwest early next week. A gradual strengthening trend is anticipated for the next few days, and Margot could become a hurricane over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Lee and Margot at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania/Senegal border and extends southwestward to 14N20W, then resumes from 11.5N29W to 07N38W. ITCZ then continues from 07N38W to 07.5N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near western Africa from 06N to 18N E of 13W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07.5N between 30W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layered low pressure extends from the upper levels to near the surface across southern Georgia and extends SW in the northeastern Gulf, where it has triggered a 45 nm wide band of moderate convection offshore of the Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is across the Bay of Campeche within 90 nm of the coast, E of 95W to just NW of Campeche. Otherwise, generally fair weather prevails across the basin as a modest surface ridge related to a 1012 mb high at the northwestern Gulf dominates. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are evident across the central and eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds with seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail at the western Gulf. For the forecast, the high and associated surface ridge will continue to dominate the region with light to moderate winds through midweek next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper-level trough over central Cuba is supporting widely scattered moderate convection dotting the northwest basin. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring S of 11.5N, about the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extending along about 10N into NW Colombia. A modest trade-wind regime is present across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident at the eastern, north-central and southwestern basin, except near Costa Rica and Panama where light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate easterly swell are present. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail at the northwestern basin. For the forecast, Hurricane Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend, and is expected to move to near 18.6N 55.1W this afternoon, near 19.6N 57.1W Sat morning, near 20.5N 58.8W Sat afternoon, near 21.2N 60.2W Sun morning, near 21.9N 61.5W Sun afternoon, and 22.4N 62.7W Mon morning. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue in the central and E Caribbean into the weekend. Large easterly swell has begun to enter the Tropical Atlantic waters, and will reach the passages of the NE Caribbean early Sat, the Anegada Passage by midday Sat, and the Mona Passage Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning for information about Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm Margot. A surface trough meander northeastward from the southeast Bahamas to near Bermuda at 31N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found up to 240 nm east of this feature. An upper-level low center in the central Atlantic near 30N45W is producing scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 41W and 45W. Farther southeast, a 1013 mb low and its related surface trough are causing widely scattered showers from 20N to 24N between 33W and 38W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are also found in this area. Outside the areas impacted by Lee, Margot and the 1013 mb low mentioned above, gentle to locally moderate NNE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell are evident north of 20N between the Africa coast and 65W, including the Canary Islands. Farther west, light to gentle with locally moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate north of 20N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are seen from 10N to 20N between 20W and the Lesser Antilles. Farther east, light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell are present north of 10N between the central Africa coast and 20W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed northerly and southerly swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, Minor fluctuations in the intensity of Hurricane Lee are expected through Sun. Lee is expected to move to 18.6N 55.1W this afternoon, near 19.6N 57.1W Sat morning, near 20.5N 58.8W Sat afternoon, near 21.2N 60.2W Sun morning, near 21.9N 61.5W Sun afternoon, and near 22.4N 62.7W Mon morning. Large swell from Hurricane Lee will reach the waters E of 58W this morning, begin to impact the Anegada Passage and adjacent waters Sat morning, reach the Mona Passage and adjacent Atlantic waters beginning early Sun morning, and the southeast Bahamas early Sun night. Beyond Mon, Lee is expected to begin to turn more NW and weaken very slowly. Powerful long period swell from Lee will reach the Florida and southeastern U.S. nearshore waters and coastlines late Sun through Mon, and build through mid week. This is expected to produce large and dangerous surf and life threatening rip currents during this time. $$ Stripling