000 AXNT20 KNHC 031806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Sep 03 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. The center of Tropical Storm Gert, at 03/1500 UTC, is near 31.2N 51.9W. GERT is moving NNE, or 030 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 15 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 24N northward between 50W and the 31N56W 26N61W cold front. 88W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Gert NHC Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Katia, at 03/1500 UTC, is near 26.0N 31.9W. KATIA is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 70 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 50 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 105 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 17 feet. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by Meteo-France, at the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2, and the latest Katia NHC Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...INVEST AL951... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 10.5N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N to 14N between 24W and 32W. The precipitation pattern has become better organized since yesterday. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for more development this week. It is likely for a tropical depression to form around midweek. The movement of this feature will be westward to west-northwestward 15 mph to 20 mph in the central and western sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N to 20N between Puerto Rico and 73W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 64W westward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N to 20N between SE Cuba and 82W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 64W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, through the 1010 mb 27W tropical wave low pressure center, to 11N36W. The ITCZ continues from 11N36W, to 11N45W 09N54W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 13N between 46W and 55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the northern coast of Cuba to 23N80W, into the Gulf of Mexico near 28N86W. A stationary front continues from 28N86W, through the coastal areas of Louisiana, northwestward into Texas. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 22N northward between 85W and 88W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 88W westward. A surface ridge extends from a 1016 mb high pressure center that is near 25N88W, to a Mexico coastal plains 1017 mb high pressure center that is near 21N98W. Moderate winds are in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and off the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the area. A weak surface trough with moderate winds over the west-central Gulf will drift westward today as high pressure continues to build over the Gulf waters. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms associated with the trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse at night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula through Tue night. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds will also pulse at night in the eastern Gulf through Mon night. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are forecast from Wed evening through Thu night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 70W. A second tropical wave is along 80W/81W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N to 20N between Puerto Rico and 73W; and from 18N to 20N between SE Cuba and 82W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 64W westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 75W in Colombia beyond northern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 76W and 80W. The pressure gradient is relaxing across the basin, bringing gentle to moderate trade winds with slight seas. The 24-hour rainfall totals, for the period that ended at 03/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 0.35 in Bermuda; and 0.11 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands. Gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail today across the basin. Fresh winds will return in the central and eastern Caribbean tonight and continue through Thu night. Slight to moderate seas will also persist through most of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about T.S. GERT, T.S. KATIA, and the 27W tropical wave/1009 mb low pressure center. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N44W, about 620 nm to the W of KATIA, and about 540 nm to the ESE of GERT. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 22N northward between 43W and 50W. A cold front passes through 31N56W 26N61W 23N70W, across the SE Bahamas and along the northern coast of Cuba to 23N80W, into the Gulf of Mexico near 28N86W. A stationary front continues from 28N86W, through the coastal areas of Louisiana, northwestward into Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. The sea heights are 8 feet or higher from 22N northward from 40W westward. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 23N northward from 70W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area. The Idalia remnant low continues to move farther north from the area. Strong winds around the low will diminish across the NE offshore waters by late tonight into early Monday. Rough to very rough seas will continue through the next few days and subside by Tue morning. Tranquil conditions will settle across the area and continue through Thu. $$ mt