000 AXNT20 KNHC 020610 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Sep 02 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is centered near 31.8N 65.3W at 02/0300 UTC or 40 nm SW of Bermuda, moving E at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.Gale force winds are currently occurring north of 30N between 64W and 69W. Seas are peaking around 20 ft near 31N69W. Strong to near gale force winds, along with seas of 12 ft or greater currently cover waters north of 29N between 63W and 72W. A gale warning is in effect through Sat afternoon, with gale force winds expected N of 30N between 63W and 71W during that time. A cold front in the area extends from 31N64W to 24N74W, and continues to northeast Florida. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm associated with a pre-frontal trough, including over the northeast and central Bahamas. he post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 14 kt and this general trajectory at a slower forward speed is expected through today. A turn toward the northeast is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track, Idalia will remain near Bermuda today, and then begin to move away from the island on Sunday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Idalia could transition to a tropical or subtropical storm later today. Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S. coast and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Tropical Storm Gert is centered near 28.2N 54.9W at 02/0300 UTC or 570 nm ESE of Bermuda, stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 11 ft near the center. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm N semicircle and 140 nm S semicircle. Gert is stationary. A northward motion is expected to begin on Saturday and continue into Sunday. Little change in strength is forecast before Gert becomes absorbed by Idalia by early Monday. Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 21.6N 28.7W at 02/0300 UTC or 430 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas near the center are around 6 to 8 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is also within 90 nm SE quadrant. The depression is moving toward the north near 20 kt. A turn to northwest is expected shortly and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday. Some strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm on later today. Weakening is expected to begin by early Sunday, and the system could degenerate into a remnant low by late Sunday. Remnants Of Jose is centered near 42.1N 47.4W at 02/0300 UTC or 1020 nm NE of Bermuda, moving NE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. See hurricanes.gov for public advisories on the active systems and for the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. See https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for the latest High Seas Forecast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A strong tropical wave is located along the west coast of Africa near 17W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen from 07N to 18N between 14W and 22W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system by the middle part of next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and high chance within the next 7 days. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been relocated based on tropical wave diagnostics and satellite imagery and is now near 62W. No significant convection is depicted in association with this wave. A tropical wave was introduced into the 00Z surface analysis based on wave diagnostics. This wave is located in the central Caribbean near 72W from 20N southward. No significant convection is depicted over the waters in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 10N15W to 14N21W. The monsoon trough resumes from 14N34W to 09N45W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, isolated showers are depicted from 06N to 11N between 40W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present over the NE Gulf. A surface trough extends from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the central Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the west coast of Yucatan and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Winds are moderate or weaker across the Gulf, except for fresh near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3 ft or less across the basin. For the forecast, a weak surface trough with moderate winds over the central Gulf will drift westward as high pressure continues to build over the Gulf waters. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms associated with the trough. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will persist through early next week with slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the convection affecting parts of the Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorms leftover from afternoon heating of landmasses have drifted offshore the south coast of Cuba and offshore the west coast of Jamaica. Fresh easterly trade winds cover the central Caribbean, except for strong within 120 nm of the coasts of NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Mainly moderate easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean and most of the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central Caribbean through tonight with moderate seas. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the western Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean. Trades will weaken on Sat as the pressure gradient relaxes and continue through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Post- Tropical Cyclone Idalia, Remnants of Jose, Tropical Storm Gert and Tropical Depression Twelve. Outside of the systems mentioned in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, high pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. With the exception of scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 37W and 42W in association with a surface trough. For the forecast W of 55W, Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is near 31.8N 65.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving east at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Idalia will move to 31.6N 64.3W Sat morning, 31.8N 62.9W Sat evening, 32.8N 61.2W Sun morning, become extratropical and move to 34.5N 59.5W Sun evening. Gale force winds and rough to very rough seas associated with Idalia will impact the north waters through the weekend. Conditions will begin to improve by early next week. Tropical Storm Gert is near 28.2N 54.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 0 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Gert will move to 28.3N 54.4W Sat morning, 29.1N 53.8W Sat evening, 30.3N 53.1W Sun morning, 32.0N 52.4W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Gert will slowly move away from the eastern offshore waters on Sat. Strong winds and moderate seas will impact the outer forecast waters due to Gert tonight. $$ KRV