000 AXNT20 KNHC 010601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Sep 01 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Franklin is centered near 36.8N 58.6W at 01/0300 UTC or 410 nm NE of Bermuda, moving ENE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. NW swell is sending seas of 6 to 9 ft into the TAFB area from 29N-31N between 60W-65W. Scattered moderate convection is found north of 30N between 50W and 53W. Franklin will continue moving ENE and farther away from the area. Tropical Storm Jose is centered near 32.7N 52.4W at 01/0300 UTC or 630 nm E of Bermuda, moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas are peaking around 12 ft near the center. Jose is rather small in size. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. A faster northward motion is expected during the next day or so, and Jose is expected to become absorbed by Franklin on Fri. Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is centered near 32.7N 70.6W at 01/0600 UTC or 300 nm W of Bermuda, moving E at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas of 12 to 18 ft and winds of 30 to 40 kt are occurring from 29N to 31N between 69W and 76W. Therefore a Gale warning is in place in the area. Idalia will move ESE to near 31N66W by Sat afternoon, where it is expected to transition to a tropical storm again. Strong to gale force winds and 12 to 18 ft seas will move eastward through Sat, north of 27N between Bermuda and 76W. Invest AL94 in the eastern Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an elongated area of low-pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form today while the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Remnants of Gert: Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized during the past several hours in association with an area of low-pressure located several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. If this current trend continues, a tropical depression is likely to form today before upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable over the weekend. The system is forecast to meander over the subtropical Atlantic through this weekend.The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is high. See hurricanes.gov for public advisories on the active systems and for the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. See https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for the latest High Seas Forecast. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W from 18N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are depicted from 10N to 14N between 56W and 60W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from western Jamaica southward to western Colombia/eastern Panama, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the wave axis between 78W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N17W to AL94 near 17.9N27.7W to 10N43W. The ITCZ begins at 10N43W and ends near 10N49W. Outside of the convection associated with AL94, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 33W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough stretches across the Gulf of Mexico from near Pensacola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche. Cloudiness with isolated showers cover the eastern and central Gulf. Another surface trough located over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing scattered moderate convection in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas cover the Gulf. For the forecast, a weak surface trough with moderate winds over the central Gulf will drift westward as high pressure continues to build over the Gulf waters. Fresh winds will pulse at night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will persist through early next week with slight ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Other than the showers and thunderstorms mentioned above in the TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered showers and thunderstorms leftover from afternoon heating are over Haiti, the south coast of Cuba and to the west of Jamaica. The Atlantic ridge along 23N continues to support fresh trades across the central Caribbean, strong in the south-central basin. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 81W with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central Caribbean through Fri night with moderate seas. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the western Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean. Trades will weaken this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes and continue through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Franklin, Tropical Storm Jose, Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia, Invest AL94 and the remnants of Gert. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES and MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ sections for information about convection in the tropical Atlantic. North of 26N and west of 50W, strong winds and rough seas are found due to Idalia, Franklin, Jose, and the remnants of Gert. Elsewhere west of 35W, winds are generally moderate or weaker, and seas are 5 ft or less. Winds and seas are ramping up in association with Invest AL94, located just NW of the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is near 33.1N 71.5W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving east at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Idalia will move to 32.3N 69.1W Fri morning, 31.1N 67.2W Fri evening, 30.6N 65.9W Sat morning, 31.3N 64.5W Sat evening, 32.3N 63.0W Sun morning, and 34.3N 61.0W Sun evening. Gale force winds and rough to very rough seas associated with the southern periphery of Idalia will impact the north waters tonight through the weekend. Moderate to rough seas generated by Hurricane Franklin will subside by Fri morning. $$ KRV