000 AXNT20 KNHC 311813 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Idalia is centered near 33.6N 78.8W at 31/1500 UTC or 75 nm SE of Cape Lookout, North Carolina and moving E at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 21 ft while 12 ft seas extend up to 160 nm in SW and NE quadrant, 200 nm in SE quadrant, and 90 nm in NW quadrant. Widespread rain with embedded scattered showers are seen up to 150 nm from the center. Idalia will continue to move E through tonight, then turn toward the SE with a decrease in forward speed on Friday. Slight weakening is forecast for tonight and Friday. Hurricane Franklin is centered near 35.1N 61.6W at 31/1500 UTC or 230 nm NE of Bermuda, and moving ENE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 41 ft while 12 ft seas extend up to 360 nm in NE quadrant, 300 nm in NW quadrant and 220 nm in S semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is found near and up to 120 nm in the E semicircle. Franklin will continue moving ENE away from Bermuda with an increase in forward speed for the next few days. A gradual weakening trend is expected for the next few days, and Franklin should become an extratropical cyclone this weekend. lease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website - https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more information on both Idalia and Franklin. Tropical Storm Jose is centered near 29.7N 52.1W at 31/1500 UTC or 670 nm E of Bermuda, and moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking around 9 ft near the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 27N between 49W and 52W. Jose will continue moving N with a slight increase in forward speed for the next day or so. Little change in strength is expected, and Jose could be absorbed by Franklin by the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml For NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories on all three systems, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc for more details. Invest AL94 in the eastern Atlantic: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 21N southward through a 1007 mb low (AL94) at 16N26W, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 20N between 22W and 31W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 18N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 07N to 14N between 49W and 58W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from just west of Hispaniola southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is near this wave based on the latest analysis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-Senegal border, then extends southwestward through a 1007 mb low (AL94) at 16N26W to 10N41W. Outside of the convection associated with AL94, scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough from 13N to 20N between 17W and 22W. Widely scattered moderate convection is evident south of the trough from 04N to 12N between 17W and 39W. There is no ITCZ based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters just north of Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle through a 1008 mb low at the central Gulf to the northern Bay of Campeche. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen across the east-central and central Gulf, including the northern Bay of Campeche. A very weak cold front curves westward from a 1010 mb low at the western Florida Panhandle to near Galveston, TX. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas are present over the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are southerly at the eastern Gulf, while northerly at the western Gulf. Seas range from 2 to 4 ft at both the eastern and western Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will build over the Gulf waters through the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will persist through early next week with slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Aided by divergent winds aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge to the north near 22N63W continues to support a trade-wind regime across most of the basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central basin, north of Colombia and Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen at the north- central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central Caribbean through Fri night with moderate seas. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the western Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean. Trades will weaken this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes and continue through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Franklin, Tropical Storms Idalia and Jose, and Invest AL94. Outside of the four systems, a 1011 mb low southeast of Bermuda near 28N58W, remnants of former Tropical Depression Gert is producing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 29N between 55W and 61W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist within 100 nm from the center. Convergent moderate to fresh with locally strong SW winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are found north of 26N between 70W and the Georgia-Florida coast. For the western and central Atlantic, a 1021 nm high near 36N44W is supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 20N between 35W and 70W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to E trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident north of 18N between the northwest Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft in moderate easterly swell are found. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh monsoonal winds and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate from 10N to 18N between the central Africa coast and 40W. Gentle southerly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft in gentle to moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Idalia will become extratropical and move to 33.6N 73.2W this evening, 32.8N 70.1W Fri morning, 31.7N 68.1W Fri evening, 31.1N 67.3W Sat morning, 31.1N 66.6W Sat evening, and 31.8N 65.3W Sun morning. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to the near 34.3N 62.0W early Mon. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas associated with outer southern periphery of Hurricane Franklin will continue to impact the western Atlantic waters north of 28N through tonight. $$ Forecaster Chan