000 AXNT20 KNHC 301759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Aug 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Idalia made landfall this morning along the coast of the Florida Big Bend near Keaton Beach at around 745 AM EDT (1145 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Idalia's maximum sustained winds were near 110 kt and a pressure of 949 mb. Idalia is currently centered near 31.4N 82.5W at 30/1800 UTC or 10 nm NNW of Waycross Georgia, moving NE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are currently around 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 27N between 78W and 84W. A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by an east- northeastward to eastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will move across southeastern Georgia today, near the coast of South Carolina tonight, and just offshore the coast of southern North Carolina on Thursday. Idalia is then expected to move east- southeastward over the western Atlantic on Friday. Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the eastern and central Gulf coast from Florida to Louisiana, and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Franklin is centered near 33.9N 66.6W at 30/1800 UTC or 130 nm NW of Bermuda, moving NE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. A gradual turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today or tonight, with a slightly faster east- northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda today. Life- threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin are affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next couple of days. For more details, refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at ocean.weather.gov Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 28.3N 52.1W at 30/1500 UTC or 700 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 10 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 27N to 30N between 49W and 52W. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. The system is expected to become a remnant low within the next couple of days. Invest AL94 in the eastern Atlantic: Low pressure of 1007 mb is located along a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands at 15.5N23W. Winds are currently to 25 kt with seas of around 8 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident from 10N to 17N and E of 30W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves west- northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on Franklin, Idalia and T.D. Eleven NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic along 53W, S of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean along 70W and S of 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 12N to 15N between 67W and 68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 15N to 17N to AL94 to 10N35W. The ITCZ continues from 10N35W to 08N51W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Idalia. Outside of Idalia which currently influences most of the basin, gentle to moderate winds prevail away from Idalia. Seas are 2-4 ft W of 92W, and 4-7 E of 92W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft will continue to affect the NE Gulf through tonight. High pressure and improved conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia Thu, and persist through the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Wave section for details on a tropical wave in the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds are W of 80W. Moderate to fresh trades are E of 80W, locally strong in the S-central Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean, 1-3 ft in the SW Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except to 8 ft in the S-central Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail in the western Caribbean and moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean through then as well. Trades will weaken this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Franklin, Hurricane Idalia, Tropical Depression Eleven, and Invest AL94. Other than these four systems, a 1016 mb low pressure area, the remnants of Gert, is located near 28N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N to 29N between 57W and 61W. Winds are likely currently around 20 kt. Seas are currently around 5 ft. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from near 31N30W through 23N50W to the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the open waters, along with seas of 3-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Idalia will move inland to 32.4N 81.1W this evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 33.8N 77.6W Thu morning, 33.9N 74.0W Thu evening, 33.2N 71.1W Fri morning, 32.4N 69.1W Fri evening, and 31.9N 68.0W Sat morning. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to near 31.4N 66.3W early Sun. Hurricane Franklin is north of our area. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas associated with Franklin will continue to affect the northern waters through tonight. $$ ERA