000 AXNT20 KNHC 291732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Aug 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. Major Hurricane Franklin is centered near 30.8N 70.4W at 29/1500 UTC or 300 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently up to 37 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm of the center. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday. Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin are already affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next several days. Steady weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Franklin will remain a hurricane through late this week. Hurricane Idalia is centered near 24.6N 84.8W at 29/1500 UTC or 100 nm W of the Dry Tortugas, moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are expected to reach 24 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is evident within 200 nm in the semicircle and 360 nm in the S semicircle. A faster motion toward the north and north-northeast is expected through early Wednesday while Idalia approaches the Gulf coast of Florida. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is forecast late Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the center of Idalia near or along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Rapid intensification is expected before landfall, and Idalia is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides. Latest 24 hour rainfall totals are reaching 9 in over Isla de la Juventud, and 8 in over Pinar del Rio. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia through Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 27.9N 51.4W at 29/1500 UTC or 740 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are expected to reach 10 ft within the area of strongest winds. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 26N to 30N between 46W-52W. A slightly faster and generally northward motion is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin, Idalia, and T.D. Eleven NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from 02N-19N and E of 23W. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later in the week while the system moves west- northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance for tropical development in 48 hours and a medium chance in 7 days. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic along 46W, from 17N southward, moving W at around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is evident with this tropical wave. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 61W, from 17N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 09N to 15N between 56W and 64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal borders of Africa near 14N17W to 13N36W. All nearby convection is described in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Idalia whose center is to the NW of the western tip of Cuba. Weak anticyclonic flow in the western Gulf with cyclonic flow associated with Idalia dominating the remainder of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the waters away from Idalia. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf W of 91W and also N of 28N with the remainder of the basin dominated by seas generated by Idalia. For the forecast, Hurricane Idalia will move to 26.5N 84.6W this evening, 29.3N 83.7W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.8N 81.7W Wed evening, then will be N of area near 33.5N 78.8W Thu morning. High pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia by Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Hurricane Idalia whose center is to the NW of the western tip of Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave affecting the Leeward Islands. High pressure ridging extends from E to W just N of the basin along 23N with moderate to fresh E-SE winds dominating the Caribbean away from the influence of Idalia, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft outside the influence of Idalia, except for 1-2 ft in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds associated with the cyclonic circulation of Idalia will continue to affect the NW Caribbean with seas of 8 to 12 ft, highest near the south coast of Pinar Rio and W of the Isle of Youth. Conditions will gradually improve today and tonight. Elsewhere, expect increasing trades and seas over the south-central Caribbean the remainder of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Major Hurricane Franklin, T.D. Eleven, and on Hurricane Idalia in the far SE Gulf of Mexico forecast to impact the waters off the SE United States. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 20N to 28N between 56W and 62W due to the influence of a mid to upper level feature. Away from the influence of Franklin, gentle to moderate winds dominate the open waters to the SW N Atlantic. The only exception is N of 18N and E of 30W where fresh to strong NE winds are offshore northern Africa due to a persistent tight pressure gradient over the region. Seas are 6-10 ft in that area. Seas are 3-6 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Franklin will move N of area to near 32.0N 69.6W this evening. Meanwhile, Hurricane Idalia will move to 26.5N 84.6W this evening, 29.3N 83.7W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.8N 81.7W Wed evening, 33.5N 78.8W Thu morning, 34.1N 75.6W Thu evening, and 33.8N 73.0W Fri morning. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to near 32.5N 70.2W early Sat. Expect increasing winds and building seas E of Florida beginning late tonight as Idalia moves across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. $$ ERA