000 AXNT20 KNHC 260853 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Aug 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin: Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 22.8N 65.8W at 26/0900 UTC or 300 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, moving ENE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is evident within 240 nm in the NE semicircle of Franklin, and elsewhere within 90 nm in the NW quadrant. A sharp turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a northward to north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic through early next week. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Franklin could become a hurricane within the next day or so. Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin affecting Bermuda by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Invest AL93: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure (invest AL93) over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the N semicircle and 60 nm in the S semicircle of the low. Current winds are 20 kt with seas of around 5 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 21N southward to across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at around 5 kt. No significant convection is noted near the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 12N southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 11N between 33W and 48W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N16W to 10N29W to 08N42W. No ITCZ is evident. All nearby significant convection is described above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on an area of low pressure (invest AL93) currently in the NW Caribbean Sea and forecast to move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Weak high pressure centered near 28.5N85.5W in the NE Gulf dominates the basin, with gentle to moderate winds. Seas are 1-3 ft across the basin, except to 4 ft near the Yucatan Channel. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the Gulf from 21N to 25N, as well as in the NE Gulf near Apalachee Bay. Similar convection is near the Yucatan Channel from AL93. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered across the SE U.S. will dominate the basin through the upcoming weekend, providing gentle to moderate winds. Developing low pres over the NW Caribbean is expected to gradually become better organized and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Expect increasing winds and seas over the eastern Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on an area of low pressure (invest AL93) currently in the NW Caribbean Sea and forecast to move generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Away from AL93, light to gentle winds under a weak pressure pattern dominates the basin, along with 1-3 ft seas. Scattered thunderstorms are evident from Puerto Rico to along and just S of the coast of Hispaniola to between Cuba and Jamaica to the lee of Cuba due to troughing around the far outer periphery of Tropical Storm Franklin which is N of Puerto Rico in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted over and offshore eastern Honduras where the Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is displaced well to the N of its usual location. For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate in the S-central and NW Caribbean, and slight seas will prevail across the basin through the weekend as T.S. Franklin moves northward and away from the Caribbean region. A developing area of low pres in the NW Caribbean is expected to gradually become better organized through the weekend, as it drifts northward across the NW Caribbean, Yucatan Channel, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build modestly to the N of the region Tue and Wed to bring a return to moderate to fresh trade winds, locally strong in the central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Franklin. A pesky stationary front lingers from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 26N to 29N between 76W and 78W. Moderate NE winds are W of the front. Elsewhere W of 50W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 4-7 ft W of 55W, and 3-5 ft between 50W and 55W. To the E, 1010 mb low pressure (invest AL92) is located near 24N48.5W. Winds are currently to 20 kt with 6-7 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm of the center. Similar convection is found from 16N to 25N between 40W and 44W, and from 23N to 31N between 48W and 52W due to a mid to upper level feature. A weak low pressure area is evident near 29N31.5W with NE to SW troughing through the low. Winds are moderate to locally fresh NW of the low and trough with 4-5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas in mainly long period SE-S swell dominate the remainder of the waters. For the forecast W of 55W, Franklin will move to 23.4N 66.0W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.6N 66.6W Sun morning, 26.0N 67.7W Sun afternoon, 27.5N 68.6W Mon morning, 29.3N 68.8W Mon afternoon, and 31.0N 68.7W Tue morning. Franklin will change little in intensity as it moves well N of the area to 34.8N 66.2W early Wed. High pressure will build westward across the region Tue and Wed as Franklin exits. Winds may increase offshore Florida Tue night through Wed as a low pres system moves N-NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. $$ Lewitsky