000 AXNT20 KNHC 252324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Aug 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN: Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 21.9N 67.0W at 25/2100 UTC or 220 nm E of Grand Turk Island, moving ENE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Franklin remains a sheared tropical cyclone with numerous moderate isolated strong convection evident within within 300 nm in the E semicircle. Peak seas are analyzed at 15 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 90 nm in the E semicircle and 75 nm in the NW quadrant. Franklin will continue moving ENE through tonight. A sharp turn toward the north, with an increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday, with a northward or north- northwestward motion over the western Atlantic continuing through early next week. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Franklin will likely become a hurricane early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO (AL93): Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized, with increasing thunderstorm activity and a better-defined low- level circulation. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 19N to 25N between 80W and 88W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance has a MEDIUM chance of development through 48 hours and HIGH chance in 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 22W, from 21N southward, moving west at an uncertain 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 18N between 20W and 24W. A tropical wave is along 38W, from 11N southward, moving west at an uncertain 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 35W and 43W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near Dakar, Senegal, at 14N17W and continues to 05N43W. Convection is described in the tropical waves section. No ITCZ is analyzed. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche with scattered thunderstorms within 30 nm of the trough axis. A trough also extends off the Louisiana coast with isolated thunderstorms within 50 nm of it. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the Yucatan Channel due to AL93. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail, turning to the NE then the NW around the trough in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered across the SE U.S. will dominate the basin through the upcoming weekend, providing gentle to moderate winds. Developing low pres over the NW Caribbean is expected to gradually become better organized as it drifts northward over the NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel over the weekend, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. A tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as this system enters a favorable environment across the eastern Gulf. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on AL93. Strong thunderstorms are noted across Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Outside of that, the main convection is associated with AL93. Light to gentle trades prevail across the Caribbean amid a diffuse pressure gradient, with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate in the S central and SE Caribbean, and slight seas will prevail across the basin through the weekend as T.S. Franklin moves northward and away from the Caribbean region. A developing area of low pres in the NW Caribbean is expected to gradually become better organized through the weekend, as it drifts northward across the NW Caribbean, Yucatan Channel, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build modestly to the N of the region Tue and Wed to bring a return to moderate to fresh trade winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm FRANKLIN. A stationary front enters the TAFB waters near 31N69W to 1010 mb low pressure near 23N75W. A trough extends southwest of the low across the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail north of the front. A weak surface trough is along 52W, from 22N to 27N. Scattered moderate convection ahead of a cold front in the eastern Atlantic is noted from 27N to 31N between 26W and 34W. The dominance of the subtropical Atlantic high pressure is interrupted by several midlatitude cyclones moving across the Atlantic north of the TAFB waters. As a result, the pressure gradient across the basin is rather diffuse, with light to gentle trades noted everywhere. Seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Franklin is near 21.9N 67.0W at 5 PM EDT, moving east-northeast at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kT. Minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Franklin will move to 22.0N 66.5W Sat morning, 22.8N 66.6W Sat afternoon, 23.8N 66.9W Sun morning, 25.4N 67.7W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 27.3N 68.5W Mon morning, to near 29.2N 68.9W Mon afternoon, then move N-NE and exit the area to the north on Tue. High pressure will build westward across the region Tue and Wed as Franklin exits. Winds may increase offshore Florida Tue night through Wed as a low pres system moves N-NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. $$ AReinhart