000 AXNT20 KNHC 241806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 22.2N 69.9W at 24/1500 UTC or 80 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Franklin appears a little better organized this morning, with a recent convective burst near the center. The morning Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission into Franklin indicates the storm has intensified a bit. On the forecast track, a northeastward to north- northeastward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn to the north in a couple of days. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Franklin could become a hurricane by Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure system (remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is located near 30.2N48.4W moving N. Near-gale to gale SE to S winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are found within 120 nm E of the center. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 25N to 31N between 45W and 49W. Gales will continue on the east side of the center until after the system moves north of 31N later today. Recently received satellite wind data suggests that the system has lost organization from yesterday, but a tropical depression or storm could still form as it moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. By this weekend, the system is expected to merge with a frontal boundary north of the Gulf Stream. This system has a medium formation chance in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is collocated with a 1008 mb low pressure system (AL92) at 18N 40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 14N to 20N between 38W and 44W. Fresh winds are in the NE semicircle of the low along with seas 5 to 7 ft. While environmental conditions are marginal for additional development, they could become more conducive in a few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central subtropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Senegal near 13N18W to 06N36W. The ITCZ continues from 06N36W to 07N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the Monsoon Trough between 16W and 34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A large elongated upper-level low near the NE Yucatan Peninsula is triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf including the Florida Keys as well as the Bay of Campeche. Another area of scattered moderate convection is depicted in the north-central Gulf. Otherwise, a 1016 mb high over the NW Gulf is leading to drier weather there. High pressure ridging extending from that high covers the northern Gulf, leading to light to moderate winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. Over the southern Gulf, moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the upcoming weekend, providing gentle to moderate winds. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form late this weekend near the Yucatan Channel. Some gradual development is possible early next week as it moves slowly N or NNE across the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southeastern quadrant of a large elongated upper-level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering isolated showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean Sea. In addition, scattered thunderstorms are seen in the Windward Passage. Winds and seas over the north central Caribbean have now diminished since Franklin is located well north of Hispaniola and continues to track northward. Light to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin located over the Atlantic, continues to pull northward, well north of the Dominican Republic. Winds and seas have improved now over the Caribbean Sea and will remain fairly quiet through Sat. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend and early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Franklin north of Hispaniola, and a Gale Warning associated with the remnants of Emily over the central subtropical Atlantic. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES and the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ sections for details on Invest AL92 located over the central Tropical Atlantic and convection in the tropical Atlantic. A 1010 mb low pressure near 17.1N 58.2W is the remnant low of Gert. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 14N to 17N between 57W and 60W. A cold front extends westward from a 1010 mb low near 30N73W to 28N76.5W to northeast FL. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are depicted north of the front. Outside of the areas near Franklin, the remnants of Emily, the cold front east of Florida, and Invest AL92, winds are light to moderate and seas are 3 to 6 ft across the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Franklin is near 22.2N 69.9W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Franklin will move to 22.6N 68.9W this evening, 23.0N 67.7W Fri morning, 23.4N 66.9W Fri evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.9N 66.4W Sat morning, 25.0N 66.6W Sat evening, and 26.6N 67.3W Sun morning. Franklin will change little in intensity as it moves to the 30.0N 68.5W early Mon. A cold front extending from 30N73W to 28N77W to Daytona Beach, FL will reach from near 31N66W to West Palm Beach, FL this evening before stalling and gradually weakening. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and building seas will continue north of the front through this evening. $$ KRV