000 AXNT20 KNHC 241137 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Aug 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 21.9N 70.4W at 24/0900 UTC or 45 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, and moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring within 180 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle only. Peak seas are 16 ft, and seas of 12 ft or greater extend outward up to 60 nm from the center. A turn to the northeast and then east-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will continue to move farther away from the Dominican Republic and over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Franklin is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1006 mb low pressure system (remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is located near 29.5N49W moving N. Near-gale to gale SE to S winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are found within 120 nm E of the center. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 25N to 31N between 44W and 49.5W. Gales will continue on the east side of the center until after the system moves north of 31N at 1800 UTC today. This system is likely to regenerate into a tropical storm by Friday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 08N to 22N, passing just west of a 1008 mb low pressure (AL92) at 17N38.5W. It is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 14N to 20N between 36W and 42W. Fresh winds are in the NE semicircle of the low along with seas 5 to 7 ft. Despite marginal environmental conditions, slow development is possible and the low could become a tropical depression by the weekend while the system moves WNW to NW into the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 20W and 34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A large elongated upper-level low near the NW Yucatan Peninsula is triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf as well as the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1014 mb high over the NW Gulf is leading to drier weather there. High pressure ridging extending from that high covers the northern Gulf, leading to light to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas. Over the southern Gulf, moderate E winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the upcoming weekend, providing mainly gentle to moderate winds. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form late this weekend near the Yucatan Channel. Some gradual development is possible early next week as it moves slowly N or NNE across the eastern Gulf. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Franklin just north of Hispaniola. The southeastern quadrant of a large elongated upper-level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean Sea NW of a line extending from 18N88W to 21.5N 81.5W. Additional thunderstorms offshore Nicaragua and eastern Honduras are related to the east Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers are noted offshore Colombia. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the Windward Passage, possibly related to the fact that this location is only 250 nm SW of Franklin. Winds and seas over the north central Caribbean have now diminished since Franklin is located well north of Hispaniola now, moving northward. Light to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail across the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, winds and seas will remain fairly quiet through Sat. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend and early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Franklin north of Hispaniola, and a Gale Warning associated with the remnants of Emily over the central subtropical Atlantic. Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on Invest AL92 located over the central Tropical Atlantic. A 1010 mb low pressure near 18N59W is the remnant low of Gert. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 54W and 59.5W. Winds are near 15 kt and seas are 4-5 ft there. A cold front extends westward from a 1010 mb low near 30N73W to 28N76.5W to Daytona Beach, FL. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are north of the front. Outside of the areas near Franklin, the remnants of Emily, The cold front east of Florida, and Invest AL92, winds are light to moderate and seas are 3 to 6 ft across the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to near 23.5N 67.0W Fri afternoon, 25N66W Sat afternoon while strengthening to a hurricane, 29N68W late Sun night with max winds of 95 kt, and to near 33.5N 68.0W late Mon night. A cold front extending from 30N73W to 28N77W to Daytona Beach, FL will reach from near 31N66W to West Palm Beach, FL this evening before stalling and gradually weakening. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and building seas will continue north of the front through this evening. $$ Hagen