000 AXNT20 KNHC 240602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 21.2N 70.4W at 24/0300 UTC or 45 nm ESE of Grand Turk Island, and moving NNE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 60 nm northeast of the center, and over Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. A turn to the northeast and then east- northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. Franklin will continue to move farther away from Hispaniola and over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next several days, and Franklin could approach hurricane strength over the southwestern Atlantic by Saturday. Some heavy showers are still possible for Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos and Puerto Rico overnight, sustaining the threat of flashing flooding. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure system (remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) located near 29N50W at 00Z, about 800 miles miles east-southeast of the Bermuda. Near-gale to gale E to SE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are found just north and northeast of the center, north of 28N between 47W and 49W. As this system continues to move NNE over the next couple of days, these winds and seas will shift north of 31N on Thu evening. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and east of the center, north of 27N between 45W and 49W. In addition, the upper-level environment is expected to become more conducive for tropical development on Thu. Therefore, there is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation on this system over the next 7 days. This system is likely to redevelop into a tropical storm over the subtropical central Atlantic near Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 22N southward, passing just west of a 1008 mb low pressure (AL92) at 17N37W. It is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N to 22N between 35W and 42W. Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for some slow development for the next several days. A tropical depression might form this weekend as it moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and medium chance through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal-Gambia border, then continues southwestward to 08N21W. No significant convection is near the monsoon trough on the latest analysis. An ITCZ continues from 08N21W through 05N35W to just east of Amapa State, Brazil near 03N49W. Widely scattered convection is noted up to 220 nm along either side of the ITCZ east of 40W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches northeastward from central Nicaragua to south of Jamaica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at Caribbean waters east of the Honduras-Nicaragua border, and south of Jamaica. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A large elongated upper-level low near the northern Yucatan Peninsula is triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf and Bay of Campeche, including the Straits of Florida. Otherwise, a 1015 mb high just south of the Texas- Louisiana border is providing light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas over the northwestern and north-central Gulf. Moderate to with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the upcoming weekend, providing mainly gentle to moderate winds. Showers and thunderstorms related to the upper-level low will gradually shift into the west-central Gulf by Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Franklin just north of Hispaniola. The southeastern quadrant of a large elongated upper-level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras and near the Cayman Islands. Convergence between monsoonal west winds and southeast winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Franklin is producing numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms near the Colombia and northwestern Venezuela coast, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal W to SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are seen across the central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail at the northwestern basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move farther north of Hispaniola to near 23N68W Thu evening and 24N66W Fri evening. This will allow conditions in the Caribbean improve through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Franklin north of Hispaniola, and a Gale Warning associated with the remnants of Emily at the central Atlantic. A cold front curves westward from a 1010 mb low near 31N73W through 29N77W to beyond the Georgia-Florida border. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 50 nm south of the front. Farther east, convergent southerly winds are causing similar conditions southeast of Bermuda, north of 27N between 56W and 61W. A 1010 mb low east of the northern Leeward Islands at 10N59W, remnants of former Tropical Depression Gert is producing scattered moderate convection from 15N to 19N between 54W and 59W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present north of 27N between 43W and 50W. Farther east, gentle to moderate NNE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate north of 19N between the northwest Africa coast and 43W, including the Canary Island. To the west outside the influence of Franklin and the cold front, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate easterly swell are noted north of 20N between 50W and the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident near and north of the cold front. For the tropical Atlantic, light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix E and S swell are found from 05N to 19N/20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to near 23N68W Thu evening, 24N66W Fri evening, strengthen to a hurricane Sat evening near 26N66W. Then it will move to near 29N 67.5W Sun evening, and into the subtropical Atlantic near 33N67W Mon evening as a 95 kt hurricane. The cold front will reach from near 31N66W to West Palm Beach, FL Thu evening before stalling and gradually weakening. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will continue near and north of the front through Thu. $$ Forecaster Chan