000 AXNT20 KNHC 230612 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Aug 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Harold is centered near 27.4N 100.2W at 23/0300 UTC or 40 nm WSW of Laredo Texas, and moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Texas Panhandle, and across the northern part of Chihuahua and Coahuila States, Mexico. Harold is expected to produce additional heavy rain for southwestern Texas and far northern Mexico through Wednesday. Isolated instances of flash flooding and landslides are possible. Harold is going to continue moving WNW overnight and weaken into a remnant low on Wed. Please read the latest Harold WPC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropstorms.shtml for more information. Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 16.4N 71.4W at 23/0300 UTC or 150 nm SW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas range from 16 to 18 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near and up to 110 NM south and east of the center. Franklin will continue a general northward motion with little change in intensity for the next couple of days. It is going to cross over Hispaniola on Wed, then emerge over the southwestern Atlantic waters Wed night. Anticipate torrential rain over the central part of Hispaniola through Wed. Strong thunderstorms east of Franklin will produce heavy showers over Puerto Rico through Wed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc for more details. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low pressure system (remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is near 25N47W. Near-gale to gale E to SE winds and seas at 9 to 10 ft are found up to 130 nm north and northeast of the low pressure center. Numerous moderate convection is flaring up north and east of the center north of 24N between 42W and 49W. This area will gradually shift NNW along with the low through Wed evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. In addition, environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for gradual redevelopment and there is a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 33W from 22N southward through a 1009 mb low pressure (AL92) centered at 17N33W, and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 21N between 30W and 37W. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for gradual development late this week, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical formation for the next 2 to 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-Senegal border. then extends westward through aforementioned AL92 at 17N33W to 11N40W. An ITCZ continues from 11N40W through 11N50W to east of Trinidad and Tobago at 11N58W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 06N to 11N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 23W. Similar conditions are present up to 60 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends northeastward from central Costa Rica to the central Caribbean Sea near 14N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and near the northwestern Colombia coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated upper-level low across the Florida Straits near 24N83W is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the east-central and southeastern Gulf. Convergent southeasterly winds are causing similar conditions at the west-central Gulf. A broad surface ridge extends southward from a modest 1016 mb high near the Florida Panhandle to the south- central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the northeastern Gulf and up to 100 nm off the Mexico coast, including the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong easterly winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft are seen at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate easterly swell prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, winds and seas over the west-central Gulf will gradually subside overnight. Conditions will improve in the northwestern Gulf Wed as the high builds further west across the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Franklin at the north-central basin. Enhanced by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, convergent easterly trades are generating widely scattered moderate convection from the Gulf of Honduras eastward across the Cayman Islands to south of the Windward Passage. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection the basin. Outside the influence of Franklin, fresh to strong NE to SE winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft are evident across the north-central basin. Fresh to strong monsoonal SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin north of Panama and northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen at the eastern basin and near the Cayman Islands and Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to near 17.6N 71.2W early Wed, inland over the Dominican Republic Wed, then emerge off the northern coast of Hispaniola near 20.0N 70.6W Wed evening. It should reach near 22N69W Thu evening, 23N67W Fri evening, and strengthen to a hurricane near 25N67W Sat evening. Conditions in the Caribbean will improve Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for Gale Winds at the central Atlantic. An upper-level trough near 29N64W is producing scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 59W and 63W. A 1009 mb low pressure (remnants of former Tropical Depression Gert) is east of the northern Leeward Islands near 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 15N to 19N between 55W and 59W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, moderate to fresh with locally strong E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found north of 25N between 42W and 49W. Otherwise north of 18N, gentle to moderate NNE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate mixed N and E swell dominate between the northwest Africa coast and Georgia- Florida coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 18N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, light to gentle with locally moderate trades and 3 to 4 ft seas exist. Farther east, light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present from 07N to 18N between the central Africa coast and 40W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will emerge off the northern coast of Hispaniola near 20.0N 70.6W Wed evening, reach near 22N69W Thu evening and then 23N67W Fri evening. It is expected to strengthen to a hurricane near 25N67W Sat evening and move to near 29N68W Sun evening. A cold front is expected to move across the waters east of northern Florida Wed afternoon through Thu followed by fresh to strong NE winds and building seas. $$ Forecaster Chan