000 AXNT20 KNHC 222209 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Harold is centered near 27.6N 99.3W at 22/2100 UTC or 10 nm E of Laredo Texas, moving WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are up to 11 ft. Scattered moderate conveciton is noted north of 27N and west of 98W. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 kt, and this motion should continue until it dissipates on Wednesday. Harold is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across South Texas through early Wednesday. Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon through Wednesday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are expected. Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 15.8N 71.4W at 22/2100 UTC or 180 nm SSW of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic, moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are up to 18 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 NM of its center. A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the southern coast of Hispaniola tonight, cross the island on Wednesday, and then emerge over the southwestern Atlantic waters late Wednesday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days while Franklin moves near and across Hispaniola. Some strengthening is possible late Thursday into Friday as Franklin moves farther northeast over the southwestern Atlantic waters. Franklin is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches across portions of Hispaniola through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with storm total maxima of 6 inches, are expected across Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Franklin and Harold NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 31W extending from 05N-21N with a 1008 mb low centered at 17N31W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-19N between 30W-40W. Environmental conditions now appear only marginally conducive for gradual development of this system - also known as AL92, but a tropical depression could still form later this week or over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern and central Atlantic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W, to the AL92 1008 mb low pressure center at 17N31W, to 13N43W. The ITCZ continues from 13N43W to 13N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-19N between 30W-40W and from 10N-13N east of 21W. The E Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica at 10N83W to 13N77W in the Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 14N and west of 78W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The effects of Tropical Depression HAROLD are in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details. Elsewhere, fresh NE winds cover the Straits of Florida with winds moderate or lighter over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas away from Harold are 4-6 over the Straits of Florida and the central Gulf, with 2-4 ft in the NE Gulf of SW Gulf. For the forecast, Harold will move farther inland to 28.7N 101.9W Wed morning and dissipate Wed afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms with strong gusty winds in the wake of Harold will continue to move toward the NW Gulf through Wed. Conditions will gradually improve in the NW Gulf beginning Wed as high pressure builds in over the area from the E. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The effects of Tropical Storm FRANKLIN are in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details. Elsewhere, the trades are moderate to fresh, except for moderate to fresh SW winds in the SW Caribbean and just north of Colombia. Seas away from Franklin are 3-6 ft. For the forecast, Franklin will move to near 17.0N 71.3W late tonight, inland the Dominican Republic near 19.1N 70.9W Wed afternoon, then back over water near 20.9N 70.3W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, and begin to gradually intensify as it moves farther away from the Caribbean through the end of the week. Gert is now a post-tropical low near 17N60W with pressure of 1008 mb. The low will continue to weaken as it moves to near 19N60W early Wed and drift slightly southeastward Thu, dissipating by early Thu evening. Conditions in the Caribbean will improve Wed night into early Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two weak lows are present: Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily at 24N47W with 1011 mb central pressure and Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert at 18N60W with 1009 mb central pressure. PTC Emily has fresh to strong winds, seas 8-9 ft, and scattered moderate convection within 180 NM of its center in the NE semicircle. PTC Gert only has moderate winds, though it still has scattered moderate convection within 90 NM of its center in the E semicircle. Elsewehre, winds are moderate or lighter across the basin with seas 4-6 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin is expected to move back over water near 20.9N 70.3W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, and begin to gradually intensify as it moves to near 22.0N 69.3W Thu afternoon, to near 22.5N 68.2W late Thu night night with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 22.9N 67.3W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 24.3N 66.7W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and reach hurricane strength near 27.6N 67.7W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Gert is expected to reach near 19N60W by early Wed, with little or no impacts on winds and seas. A cold front is expected to move across the waters E of northern Florida Wed through Thu followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas. $$ Landsea