000 AXNT20 KNHC 221806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Tue 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Harold, at 22/1800 UTC, is near 27.2N 98.4W. HAROLD is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 18 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Tropical storm-force winds have been during the last few hours: within 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater have been during the last few hours: within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in south Texas from 30N southward between 96W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from the Texas coast near 28N97W southeastward for 360 nm into the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the west of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the Straits of Florida. The center of Tropical Storm Franklin, at 22/1800 UTC, is near 15.5N 71.4W. FRANKLIN is about 202 nm/375 km to the SSW of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. FRANKLIN is moving toward the NW, or 325 degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 50 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 75 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 45 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 75 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights that are near the center are 17 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Heavy rainfall is expected for Hispaniola and for Puerto Rico. The hazards that will be affecting land areas are: rainfall, wind, and storm surge. Please, refer to the following website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more information. The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert is near 17.4N 59.7W, at 22/1500 UTC. GERT has become a post-tropical remnant low. The low pressure center is moving toward the WNW, or 290 degrees, 048knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Expect winds to range from 20 to 25 knots, and the sea heights to reach 8 feet, within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm of the center in the E quadrant. Please, refer to the following website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more information about each weather system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ...INVEST AL92 IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... Disorganized rainshowers and thunderstorms, that are a few hundred miles to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands, are associated with a 30W/31W tropical wave. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 17N. The environmental conditions appear to be generally conducive for gradual development of this system. It is possible that a tropical depression may form later this week, or during the weekend. The movement of this weather system will be west-northwestward to northwestward, in the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Senegal and Mauritania near 19N16W, to the AL92 1009 mb low pressure center, to 13N43W. The ITCZ continues from 13N43W to 13N54W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The effects of Tropical Storm HAROLD are in the westernmost parts of the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details. The sea heights for the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, away from T.S. HAROLD, are: from 5 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 90W eastward, except for 2 feet to the east of the Florida Big Bend; and from 2 feet to 3 feet in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate and fresh easterly winds are from 90W eastward. Tropical Storm Harold is near 27.1N 97.4W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Harold will move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 27.7N 99.5W this evening, then move farther inland to near 29.5N 103.5W Wed morning and dissipate Wed evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms with strong gusty winds in the wake of Harold will continue to move toward the NW Gulf once Harold moves inland through Wed. Conditions will gradually improve in the NW Gulf beginning Wed as high pressure builds in over the area from the E. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Franklin is in the Caribbean Sea. The hazards that FRANKLIN is posing are: rainfall, wind, and storm surge. Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with storm total maxima of 6 inches, in Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday. for parts of Hispaniola: expect rainfall amounts of 5 inches to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, through Wednesday. Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Windward Passage. Moderate and fresh SE winds are in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate and fresh easterly winds are within 600 nm to the west of the tropical storm. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere to the west of T.S. Franklin. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet to the east of FRANKLIN, and in the rest of the areas that are between the western sides of FRANKLIN and 80W. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the NW corner of the area from 20N northward. The sea heights are ranging from 1 foot to 2 feet from 16N southward from 80W westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 11N to 15N between 77W and 82W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC, are: 0.62 in Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.43 in St.Thomas in the Virgin Islands; 0.18 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; and 0.13 in Merida in the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Tropical Storm Franklin is near 15.5N 71.1W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Franklin will move to near 16.5N 71.3W this evening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, inland the Dominican Republic near 18.3N 70.9W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, then back over water just north of Hispaniola near 20.4N 70.2W Wed evening and gradually intensify as it moves farther away from the Caribbean through the end of the week. Gert is now a post-tropical low near 17N60W with pressure of 1008 mb. The low will continue to weaken as it moves to near 19N60W early Wed and drift slightly southeastward Thu, dissipating by early Thu evening. Fresh to strong winds winds within 60 nm in the NE quadrant will diminish by early Wed. Conditions in the Caribbean will improve Wed night into early Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The remnant low pressure center of Emily is near 23N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 600 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within a radius of 300 nm elsewhere. Expect: 20 to 25 knot winds, and sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet within 210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Expect also: moderate or slower wind speeds, and the sea heights to range from 8 feet to 9 feet in E to SE swell, from 23N to 30N between 39W and 50W. ...INVEST AL92 IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... Disorganized rainshowers and thunderstorms, that are a few hundred miles to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands, are associated with a 30W/31W tropical wave. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 17N. The environmental conditions appear to be generally conducive for gradual development of this system. It is possible that a tropical depression may form later this week, or during the weekend. The movement of this weather system will be west-northwestward to northwestward, in the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Franklin is near 15.5N 71.1W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Franklin will move to near 16.5N 71.3W this evening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, inland the Dominican Republic near 18.3N 70.9W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, then back over water near 20.4N 70.2W Wed evening. Franklin will gradually intensify as it moves to near 22.1N 69.3W Thu morning, to near 22.9N 68.2W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt and to near 23.3N 67.1W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Franklin will change little in intensity as it moves to near 24.2N 66.3W by early Sat. The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Gert is expected to reach near 19N60W by early Wed, with little or no impacts on winds and seas. A cold front is expected to move across the waters E of northern Florida Wed through Thu followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas. $$ mt/ja